MarketWatts @RootSwego

Those $250 BN in AI bonds should have indentures that ban this.

OpenRouter @OpenRouter

2 days ago

Notably, the budget panel was comparable with Claude Fable 5 in performance. A panel of Gemini 3 Flash, Kimi K2.6, and DeepSeek V4 Pro, fused together, beat solo GPT-5.5 and solo Opus 4.8 outright. And it landed within 1% of Fable 5 while costing roughly half the price.

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Game theory from here is super interesting: Original Mags (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) now have a serious non-zero opportunity to tank the frontier labs. Go to the government, kneecap the labs’ motion of putting the latest models out in the wild, become the trusted gatekeeper between the labs and the public at large (including internationally) by having the labs go through their clouds (AWS, GCP, Azure) and implement strict KYC to seal the deal. The frontier labs should have seen this coming years ago and implemented a robust KYC for just this moment. The fact they didn’t is kind of concerning. Why did they not do it? Best guess is because it would have changed the run-rate revenues (downward) which would have then changed funding dynamics - lower valuations, more dilution, less secondary. A valuation reset may happen now anyways, except the labs may end up with less control and more restrictions at the end of it. At the same time, everyone is already clamoring about token prices of the old models from the labs anyways… This couldn’t be a better setup for open source and neoclouds. Big question is can they meet the moment? There are too few of them and their progress seems sporadic at best.

AI is driving US inflation higher: Consumer prices for computer software and accessories surged +14.5% YoY in May, the biggest annual increase on record in data going back to 2000. Producer prices for electronic components soared +27% YoY, also the biggest increase on record. To put this into perspective, before 2026, prices for software and electronic components fell in almost every year since 2000. Memory prices alone have more than doubled, with DDR5 and DDR4 RAM prices up +290% YoY, as AI data centers absorb the vast majority of global chip supply. RAM price shocks are will likely keep inflation elevated well into 2027, adding to existing pressures from the Iran War. The AI boom is fueling technology inflation.

Seth Klarman: "This Is a Bubble" | The Legendary Investor's Brutal AI Wa... youtu.be/AbZYb11A-Hw?is… via @YouTube

GS: Difference in profitability helps explain variation in valuations across equity indices

The demographic cliff is here. Syracuse offered students significant discounts to attend but still ended up under-enrolled. The university has already offered buyouts to 175 professors and closed 93 majors. And the pop. of 18-year-olds “will decline for the next 15 years.”

Great slide from @TruthGundlach showing how the only other period where we had PMI employment & prices measures this high without hikes was in the mid 70s Burns cut because Nixon pressured him. We all know how dumb that was yet everyone believes Warsh will repeat the mistake

It is criminal that our government enabled a bat virus to infect and spread between humans. Indeed, it is hard to imagine a bigger betrayal of our species. It is equally troubling that the mad scientists who did this then gaslit all the people of the world about it, including those who CORRECTLY interpreted the evidence. Then, of course, the very same monsters amped up fear of the Covid frankenvirus and steered the panicked public away from safe medicines, and toward an obviously dangerous gene-therapy which they falsely called a vaccine in order to lure us into acceptance. These are among the greatest crimes EVER committed against humanity. We now have persuasive evidence of everything I have said above. If we don't correct the record and hold the perpetrators to account, this pattern will happen again, and again, and again--shortening our life expectancy, and degrading our quality of life each time that it does. This is our Nuremberg moment. We can not simply move on from this ghastly chapter of history. We must finish it. @brownstoneinst

Paul D. Thacker @thackerpd

3 days ago

@RandPaul DOCS: hsgac.senate.gov/wp-content/upl… "SARS-CoV-2 is an American-created recombinant bat vaccine, or its precursor virus. It was created by an EcoHealth Alliance program at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV)."

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𝗝𝗶𝗺 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗰𝗵𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗪𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗮 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝟭𝟵𝟴𝟯, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺. My conversation with Jim covers: • Why AI is "one of the greatest bubbles of all time" • Expectations for the SpaceX, OpenAI & Anthropic IPOs • One-third of the ~$6 trillion in life insurance assets now sits in private credit • His grade for Jay Powell, and expectations for Kevin Warsh • U.S. debt went from $1 trillion in principal to $1 trillion in annual interest in a single career 0:00 Starts 0:39 Jim on the AI mania 12:23 The economic implications of inflation & deflation 19:56 Interest rates and private credit concerns 27:13 The Fed's inflation 'target' 41:10 How to fix the Federal Reserve 45:09 The history and role of gold in portfolios 54:34 Jim's most memorable investment 57:28 Historical periods to study

Almost 6000 DUC wells completed over the last 6 years have supported US shale production growth + plateau, and are now completely exhausted! Remaining DUC's are active stock related to rigs currently drilling + uneconomic wells = much harder for future 🇺🇲 production growth. 🛢💰

Consistent feedback from trading desks has been that geopolitical volatility had paralyzed generalist funds from deploying and that at least in Canada, meaningful sidelined buying power exists, waiting for "the day after." The investment thesis was never the spike to $150+ on tank bottoms and the depletion of the US SPR, it was then and remains now a sector discounting ~$65WTI with what we think will be a fundamental floor of ~$80 given: 🛢️record low inventories that will continue to fall further (regional tank bottoms + US SPR at/near operational minimum levels) 🛢️~0.45MM Bbl/d of new demand for the next 3 years to restock depleted inventory + likelihood of increases to SPR targets 🛢️productive capacity challenges with 80% of most production coming online within 1-4 months but "the last 20% is the hardest" = >2MM Bbl/d 🛢️A Strait of Hormuz under IRGC control will never return to pre-war levels and partial workarounds will take years 🛢️ Reasonable to think some element of a political risk premium?!? 🛢️$74WTI = yellow light now for US shale? Inventory challenges only accentuated under growth mode 🛢️pre-UAE joining the non-OPEC ranks, non-OPEC production was forecasted to be peaking in 2026 🛢️pre-war, UAE adjusted, OPEC spare capacity was only ~1.35MM Bbl/d half of that is 100% reliant on the SofH

Anyone considering investing in SpaceX should have a peek at this analysis from @andrewmccalip andrewmccalip.com/space-datacent…

US withdraws its bases from the Middle East Iran controls the SoH and charge an “environmental fee” to cross it Iran keeps its enriched Uranium and facilities Israel troops will withdraw from Lebanon If you think Trump, Iran and Israel all agree here, I have a bridge to sell

It's not just energy inflation - we have a broad based re-acceleration

Remember tariffs?

Trump jawboning, updated for today's episode

Anyone remember 2010-2014, when oil averaged $95? That's $140 adjusted for inflation... Back then, there was no demand destruction. Demand grew by 1mbpd.

At what point does Trump start raging at soaring memory prices PPI Electronic Components is pulling entire core index higher

I don't know who needs to hear this, but this is not a buy.

Software inflation is white hot @AugurInfinity augurdigest.com/p/augur-digest…