Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator
Economics writer and analyst Macrobusiness | Yahoo Finance | https://t.co/650ZahY2Lx You can help to support my content by subscribing at https://t.co/oaLPzJDjsh burnouteconomics.com Australia Joined August 2018-
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Deal done folks.....
Iran attacked commercial vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz tonight, launching multiple attack drones - US official to FOX
@LiamCarrol28881 It's not up to Australians to sacrifice improvements to their living standards to maintain migration levels. It's the opposite, migration levels should reflect conditions in the housing market, labour market and it's impact on other economic metrics such as productivity.
At some point you have to take a step back and reflect on the insanity of the Albanese government. We are in our 5th year of rental crisis and many Australians are suffering horribly for it. Yet the government continues to pursue settings that keep things this way.
We need 100-120k dwelling completions solely as a result of domestic population growth, demographic changes and knockdown rebuilds. Back in 2005, the impact of changes to household demographics on housing demand was close to 0. Today it's closer to 60k homes per year, which equates to around 67k dwelling completions alone.
That is part of it, it's also that more households formed as a result of lockdown as people wanted their own space away from group households and parents. In short, pent up housing demand that has existed under the surface for the best part of about 15 years at that stage. The exact same thing would happen again if borders closed and rents fell dramatically. Migration has too high for optimal household formation rates since shortly after the start of the Big Australia era.
There is a narrative that if you point out the issues with high migration and housing, that you are "attacking migrants". The people hurting migrants are the government, pushing them into Australia's housing hunger games with no rental history and no significant job history.
The insane thing is they are also throwing migrants to the dogs. They are coming into a country with a rental crisis with no rental history, often little cash and minimal employment history. Unsurprisingly for a sizable number its a complete clusterf***. There was one bloke whose story was shared by a mate recently who needed to front up 7 months rent just to get shall we say a sub par property.
Its my suspicion we have crossed the Rubicon. Not that long ago the electorate only emerged from the self imposed hibernation close to elections by their own admission. Today, people are for whatever reason far more aware of the ongoing issues and acting accordingly. None of this is favourable for the government, as things are not likely to significantly improve.
Its reached the point where the potential for it blowing up in one's face is less of a risk in the eyes of a lot of people than a continuation of the status quo. If memory serves correctly, the March RedBridge polling showed that a majority of voters in almost all demographics (ex-Labor and Greens voters) held the view that almost any other path would be better than this. I dont think the Canberra bubble realizes how bad things are out there and this is going to continue until things get fixed.
@gaganghotra_ @TrumpTruthOnX The theatre continues and all for an MOU..... Which anyone in business at a certain level knows is worth bugger all.
It really is quite amazing how Trump had turned the White House into a source of bare faced lies, many of which serve to pump financial markets. He has torched the credibility of his office.
*TRUMP SAYS IRAN AGREEMENT PRETTY MUCH WRAPPED UP *TRUMP TELLS NYP REPORTER IRAN DEAL NEARS COMPLETION
Its astounding how treating shares and business investment equally unfavourably as existing residential property is seen as "good for productivity" by the government. h/t @bowtiedstocks
Prewar ballpark 18 MMbpd of non-Iranian oil transited the Strait. According to these figures, that flow stood at 1.2 MMbpd in May, a ~93% reduction. Same data for the first 10 days of June SURGED 50%, to 1.8 MMbpd—still a 90% reduction vs prewar non-Iranian transit levels. Oh,
Today I went on Facebook for the first time in a while and my word has it gone downhill quickly. My feed once filled with video game news and car club posts is now quite literally 1/3 poorly targeted ads. I wont be paying for ad free, I'll just use it much less.
*LAGARDE: EURO-AREA GROWTH NOT UNDER SIGNIFICANT THREAT
@Potstirrer111 It's seasonality, the SQM vacancy rate for Sydney in May last year was 1.5%.
If the U.S Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues at the current rate of burning through reserves seen over the last 5 weeks, by early August total stocks will hit an all time low since records began in 1982.
Someone has screwed up pretty badly....
Indias foreign ministry has said three Indian ships have been targeted by US forces around the Strait of Hormuz. Wow...
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