Rightsized CapStack Capital @CapstackCapital
Master of EBITDA Adjusting ~ Industrials / A&D ~ SaaS / AI ~ LMEs / Rx ~ Unapologetically Catholic ✝️ ~ #GoBruins 🐻💙💛 ~ #BillsMafia ~ ≠ investment advice 310 ➡️ 513 ➡️ 215 Joined July 2019-
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@JuLikeThat @dyray22 @UCLAFBRecruit Congrats!
Last night by girl said to me “babe, can we have some Special Sits time and $NNBR & Chill”. What was I gonna do, say no?
@HettyGreen2020 Hell ya it did!
@GibbyTrades NNBR is a staple lol
@SeaKingFootball Go Bruins 🐻
@memely Thank you for the S/O! The entire thesis is on my profile!
$BWA may be one of the cheaper ways to gain exposure to the AI power theme. @CapstackCapital notes that while BorgWarner is still primarily an automotive supplier today, its growing portfolio of battery storage, microgrid inverters and turbine-generator systems creates optionality tied to future data center power demand.
@ShanuMathew93 I actually got it last week. It’s an intriguing IPO x.com/capstackcapita…
ERock, a manufacturer of natural gas power systems, is gearing up for an IPO valuing the Company at $6bn. Roadshow launched today for an offering of 27.9mm shares at $20-$23/shr. ERock primarily serves data centers, utilities and large commercial and industrial businesses
@z9141706349251 Tbh I’m mixed. But prolly not a bad idea. Both prolly with re-rate esp the aerospace segment
$HON Aerospace Investor Day presentation dropped yesterday - 150pg deck investor.honeywell.com/static-files/7…
@GibbyTrades @minta0103 Hell ya!
6.10 美股日记 - $BWEN / $BWA : Power Bottlenecks Alpha 一、Broadwind（Ticker: $BWEN ） 1、一句话购买理由 BWEN 买的是燃气轮机供给短缺下的一层精密制造代理。 2、核心要点 业务定位：Broadwind 是美国本土精密制造商，核心变成 Gearing 和 Industrial Solutions，服务 power generation、critical infrastructure、mining 等市场。 今日新增：市场开始把它从风电塔筒公司重新看成 GEV、Siemens、CAT 等燃机供应链下游的精密齿轮、kitting 和装配供应商。 订单 / 财报：Q1 Gearing 订单同比增长 66%，backlog 达 3050 万美元；Industrial Solutions 订单同比增长 44%，backlog 达 4330 万美元；两个核心业务 Q1 收入分别同比增长 42% 和 64%。 独特性：公司退出 Abilene 风电塔筒资产，出售价格最高 1950 万美元，同时保留近 3 亿美元 NOL，未来如果核心业务盈利改善，税盾价值很重要。 Why Now：GEV 和 Siemens 燃机排产紧张，AI data center 的 BYOP 需求让“燃机一层供应链”开始被市场挖掘。 3、风险评估 流动性风险：BWEN 仍是约 1 亿美元市值小票，成交稀薄，不能市价追。 转型风险：公司退出风电后变小，2026 guidance 已撤回，Q2 后才有更干净的核心业务视图。 客户风险：增长依赖少数大型 OEM，订单强但客户集中和交付节奏仍需验证。 4、市场观点 @ThematicTrader 提到（x.com/ThematicTrader…），BWEN 是 GEV / Siemens 燃机排产爆满后被忽视的一层供应商，Industrial Solutions 和 Gearing 正在受益于燃机供应链紧张，并特别提示小盘低流动性，必须用限价单。 5、估值模型 按约 9600 万美元市值看，市场仍把 BWEN 当小型工业转型股，而不是 power generation precision manufacturing proxy。若风电噪音退出后，核心业务能保持 15–20% EBITDA margin，并让 backlog 持续转收入，中期市值有机会向 1.5–2.5 亿美元重估；若订单无法放量，估值会回到普通小型制造股。 6、交易思考 只能小仓研究仓，不追高、不市价买。下一步看 Q2 是否给出无风电噪音后的核心收入、margin 和订单转化。 三、BorgWarner（Ticker: $BWA）：传统汽车零部件里的 BYOP 期权 1、一句话购买理由 BWA 买的是汽车零部件商切入数据中心自备电的低估值期权。 2、核心要点 业务定位：BorgWarner 本质仍是传统汽车动力总成和电气化零部件公司，数据中心 power generation 目前是新业务期权，不是当前收入主驱动。 今日新增：公司确认数据中心和工业组合已扩展到 BESS 与双向微电网逆变器，2027 turbine generator system launch 仍在推进，B-samples 已交付客户。 订单 / 财报：Q1 adjusted operating margin 为 10.5%，公司当季回购和分红合计返还股东约 1.85 亿美元，说明它不是 HYLN / FCEL 这类高融资依赖小票。 独特性：BWA 的优势不是概念，而是 turbo、热管理、制造规模和汽车级工程能力，可把燃机发电系统做成可规模化工业产品。 Why Now：数据中心缺电推动 BYOP，Bloom Energy 已被市场重估，资金开始寻找更便宜、更成熟的 power generation 替代表达。 3、风险评估 主业风险：短期业绩仍主要由汽车周期决定，power generation 还不能改变当期收入结构。 兑现风险：turbine generator 预计 2027 才开始销售，2028 后才可能更明显贡献收入。 估值风险：股价已有一年大幅上涨，若 AI power 交易退潮，BWA 也会跟随回撤。 4、市场观点 @CapstackCapital 提到（x.com/CapstackCapita…），BWA 正从 legacy auto supplier 切入 data center power generation，预计 2027 年开始销售，power generation / BESS / power conversion 可成为 FY28 之后的增量，同时当前估值仍约 8x LTM EBITDA，市场可能尚未充分计入这部分期权。 5、估值模型 按约 153 亿美元市值看，BWA 不是小票弹性，而是低估值成熟工业股叠加 AI power call option。若 2027 后 power generation 贡献约 3 亿美元以上收入，并带动市场从 8x EBITDA 向 11–14x 工业成长估值重估，中期弹性来自 earnings growth + multiple expansion；若新业务延期，则估值仍回归汽车零部件逻辑。 6、交易思考 BWA 可作为低波动 AI power 卫星仓观察，但不追一年大涨后的高位。更好的买点是市场回调或公司披露首批商业订单。 #PowerBottlenecks #Broadwind $BWEN #BorgWarner $BWA
$BWA Capitalizing on Power Generation Bottlenecks / Bring Your Own Power (BYOP) tailwinds. A pivot from legacy auto supplier to data center power generation. BWA strategic pivot to power generation via leveraging its expertise with turbos [chargers] is notable & impressive.
Elite human act right there!
🚨🚨HEARTWARMING🚨🚨 #Pirates phenom pitcher Paul Skenes was driving by a Little League field when he decided to stop and play catch with the kids. Skenes stayed for over two hours, signing autographs and hanging out with the kids. A day these kids will never forget. 🥹❤️
What is everyone's thoughts on $BMI at 16x LTM EBITDA currently? Share Px -51% LTM (-28% YTD). Seems like a great play on water, especially with accelerating water demand attributable to data centers. Performance appears at trough levels with a relatively flat FY26 and revenue growth re-accelerating to 8% in FY27. Trough levels w/ favorable multiple + steady grower + income + end-market tailwinds What am I missing? Anyone have thoughts? @Groundwork_HQ - I believe you have discussed it before. Are companies like $XYL $VLTO just that much better?
@z9141706349251 I’m not married lol… yet. Not even engaged yet haha. I’m just locked in bro. Locked in on the markets. Tunnel vision.
@DurableCreators Thank you! I appreciate the insights!
@dalibali2 “Market participants call it a ShitCo Platform”
@MishapMergers @BullieGems *this is not investment advice
Holy hell it’s a bloodbath in Korea. Circuit breakers triggered. Samsung & SK Hynix leading the losses.
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