Felix @Compoundingzero

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The US-Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz remains unchanged. Threat level is still SEVERE Yet a 19 June "non-binding" contract with an "unknown" party from Tehran just put billions into the market. Mental.

@DaveWeLike yepp, totally, they have Roku originals. But am just trying to make a point on distribution (the fact that they own the real estate for 100 mil+ households), that the real moat isn't competing with Netflix on content spread

$ROKU doesn’t own a single show… But it controls access to 100M+ households. Meanwhile $NFLX, $DIS, and $WBD (Max) all pay for the privilege to appear on your screen. The edge is the distribution

Fox to acquire $ROKU for $22 billion! That wasn't some random soliciting. It was the edge they had all along.

Felix @Compoundingzero

23 hours ago

$ROKU doesn’t own a single show… But it controls access to 100M+ households. Meanwhile $NFLX, $DIS, and $WBD (Max) all pay for the privilege to appear on your screen. The edge is the distribution

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What part of the business can be turned into a replicable digital pattern that outlasts you? Is that being built and systemized?

Software ($PLTR, $NOW, $CRM, $ADBE, $MSFT) has a digital gene and it replicates at near-zero cost. Margins expand as you scale. Traditional service businesses ($MCD, $ACN, $MAR, $HLT, $HCA) are different tho. Every new client needs more time. Margins stay flat.

Every investor and builder should know this from Dawkins’ The Selfish Gene. Your body dies. But some of your genes have been copied perfectly for hundreds of millions of years. Here's why this is so important to understand if you want to outperform in markets and life: $PLTR, $NOW, $CRM, $ADBE, $MSFT, $MCD, $ACN, $MAR, $HLT, $HCA

$ECPG actually benefits when consumer defaults rise (more cheap portfolios to buy). Private credit PIKs are mostly a corporate lending issue. The real risks for $ECPG remain its own leverage and the spillover effects from defaults. Would you own $ECPG or bet against private credit stress?

Private credit stress could eventually spill over if companies cut jobs and consumer stress rises. But right now, there’s no strong direct connection. In fact, $ECPG’s management has repeatedly called the current U.S. consumer credit environment “highly favorable” due to strong portfolio supply and attractive returns.

Private credit is hiding more pain than the numbers show. Payment-in-Kind (PIK) structures have exploded, letting struggling companies pay interest with more debt instead of cash. This makes reported defaults look artificially low. What does this mean for $ECPG?

Would you buy this at current levels? $ECPG

Current valuation: • P/E (trailing): 6.4x • P/S: 0.96x • EV/EBITDA: ~7.9x This is cheap for a company with stable double-digit FCF margins and a market-leading position in US debt purchasing.

Most companies with big GAAP losses get punished hard by the market. $ECPG kept collecting real cash the entire time. 2023 → $101M 2024 → $127M 2025 → $127M CapEx has now dropped sharply as major tech investments are complete.

$ECPG posted -$206M and -$139M GAAP losses in 2023 and 2024. Yet it generated $127M in Free Cash Flow both years. 2025 profit: $257M. Q1 2026 collections +19% YoY. Trades at just 6.4x trailing P/E with a $1.77B market cap. Here's the thing most people are missing out on:

Costco caps its markup at 15%. It loses money on hot dogs, chickens, and gas. And it's one of the best businesses on earth. Here's the trick: in a normal year, Costco's entire operating profit roughly equals one line item — membership fees. The groceries are sold near cost. The profit is the fee. So what are you actually buying at Costco? Not the products. The right to access them. Costco isn't a retailer. It's a buyers' club that happens to own warehouses. The merchandise is the demo. The membership is the product. And it's a gorgeous product: ~90% renewal, almost pure margin, paid a year upfront. AI will gut the cost of the back end — buying, forecasting, logistics. It can't touch the membership, because the moat was never software. It was trust and scale in buying on your behalf. Costco sells you the groceries at cost. What you actually buy is the right to

@WhaleInsider Which Iran is this?

When multiple serious competitors can eventually achieve similar reusability, the barrier to entry becomes lower than it appears. This raises a key question for valuation: Is $SPCX being priced as if it has a durable competitive edge (when its economics is easily replicated)?

However, reusability is no longer unique to $SPCX. Blue Origin is developing reusable boosters with New Glenn. Rocket Lab is building the reusable Neutron rocket and has already demonstrated partial reusability with Electron. Other players, including several Chinese companies, are also actively pursuing reusable launch systems.

Most people are focused on SpaceX’s stock price after the IPO. But they're missing out on the most important thing: the business economics You're losing the trillion dollar bet if you don't understand how replicable is $SPCX vertical integration