S.m @CroSterson
Apples Fall to the Sky 🕳️🐇 Joined June 2024-
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things I keep coming back to on $VELO: - SpaceX paid $8M to a near-bankrupt VELO in Sept 2024 ($5M license + $3M support). the contract invokes Section 365(n) of the US Bankruptcy Code: if VELO collapses, SpaceX legally inherits complete access to ALL source code, IP, and designs. they engineered a deal that wins whether VELO survives or dies. you do not write that clause for a replaceable supplier. - 70% of new orders are REPEAT orders. parts-as-a-service, not capital equipment cyclicality. different business, different multiple. - new CFO Suva on his first earnings call: "Absolutely I do" on H2 EBITDA positive. no hedge. - Q1: revenue beat consensus 39%. gross margin swung 91 POINTS in ONE quarter (-73.6% to +17.2%). not a turnaround. an inflection. - CEO Jeldi same call: demand is "10x of what we need as a capacity now." direct quote. - long-term target: 400 production machines. 15 today. 40 by EOY 2026. scale story in a microcap wrapper. - CEO Performance Award vests on MARKET CAP milestones: 10% at $1B, 20% at $3B, 30% at $5B, 40% at $10B. first tier is 1.8x from current. full vest is 18x. that is the upside the board literally wrote into the comp plan. - and in March, Jeldi PERSONALLY bought a $5M company note and converted it into stock at $16.38, a PREMIUM to market. - $50M Cantor cleared at $14. $100M ATM with Cantor/Needham/Craig-Hallum at $19.84 reference. three institutional banks don't sign that cover unless they see the move. - speculation: Raptor 3 deletes external plumbing for integrated cooling. Raptor 4 extends it. printed content per engine goes UP while Starship production ramps. content AND unit growth. - speculation: Anduril Barracuda high-rate production wants SupportFree propulsion. nobody is modeling this. and someone just bought 4,800x June $30 calls @ $1.00. $480k in premium. someone is positioning.
Wrote an article on $INFQ
$VELO More light on the 100M ATM
Worth a read.🧘♂️ $VELO
@bidask123 @fundmyfund Not disputing that possibility. Think they won’t dilute for something short of exciting.
@fundmyfund appreciate it! english isn't my first language so I only had it rewrite the thesis. I'm very into the topic so tried to cover a lot
To clarify: these aren't warrants, they're common shares from the Oct 2025 registered direct (20,689,655 shares at $7.25, closed Oct 28). Registered direct under an already-effective SEC shelf means those shares were freely tradeable from day one. Investor lockups don't apply here, only issuer and insider restrictions do. No April 28 unlock event.
@PepInvestStocks x.com/dilutracker/st…
Dilution Alert: $VELO (MC: $249M) - Filed S-3 shelf for up to $500M in future offerings (common, preferred, debt, warrants, units), including ATM sales. - Aggregate outstanding warrants for 36,892 shares at avg $4,154.74/share, expiring Sep 29, 2026. - Public warrants (16,429
It's all connected. Figure it out. $poet #OFC26
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