Joe Kaiser @DFW_Intl_RE

MAJOR UPDATE FOR HOME BUYERS AND SELLERS It’s been difficult to track every headline recently, but one development matters materially for housing. On Thursday, President Trump stated on social media that he is instructing representatives to purchase $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Why this matters Thirty-year mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury, but they are not the same thing. There is a spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates that reflects additional risk in mortgage-backed securities. When a government entity steps in as a large buyer of MBS—as the Federal Reserve did during COVID—that spread can compress. The result: mortgage rates can decline even if the 10-year Treasury does not. As of today, mortgage rates have already moved back below the 6% level. This is unlikely to recreate the speculative excesses of 2020–2021. However, if this policy action materializes, it would meaningfully improve affordability at the margin and should translate into higher transaction volume compared to the last two years. If you want to understand how this could affect your buying or selling strategy specifically, feel free to message me.

@jonbrooks Most investors I know seem to be buying more as a hedge - they have too many dollars sitting idle - rather than as making money from the portfolio. As long as it cash flows a bit, they are happy.

@akm515 When measuring asset vs asset (rather than denominated in USD) its a great time to buy a luxury asset in one of Dallas' best neighborhoods. But what is your definition of REAL?

@jonbrooks Maybe not a good idea from the perspective of government income, education etc. But philosophically in line with a free market. Currently - even if house is paid off you are still a tenant of the government.

@BarbellFi Locking it up at 5% for 30 years is silly. Your real rate of return could be negative over the next thirty years. Takes away optionality and you are betting on fiscal responsibility of the US government.

@SolLunix grimes is overrated

@writeandlift Tampa/Pittsburg not better than Chicago/Dallas

@kevintalcott @FluentInFinance I do appreciate your post in an otherwise doom filled scroll session.

@casinokrisa @FluentInFinance Sure - but it is a nice proxy to show a trend over time. Mans cooking with an X post

@SelfMadeMastery Master Carpenter

@theficouple Out of curiosity - what should these numbers be for you?

@Budgetdog_ Access to capital is an often overlooked issue imo. It's not an excuse per se, but having better terms allows for more run way.

@Budgetdog_ I try to - probably 95% of the time. I think it's one of those family culture things that seems innocuous but builds a culture in a way nothing else can replicate.

@elonmusk's recent promulgation of no savings with an implicit promise of UBI promises neo-feudalism to all. Absolutely wild times we live in.

@theficouple This is a great point. I think people need to understand this to make a good decision with home ownership. The fact of the matter is that real estate you use - especially financed, and even sometimes without financing - is not some magical wealth creation route.

@mortgagetruth If the forecast is for "flat rates" it will be anything but - interested to see how the Treasury pulls off refinancing $9 trillion next year. I hope they pull it off.

@akm515 Always good to remember!

@texasrunnerDFW How would that happen? Fed cuts have not really changed 30 year MBS all that much - has been range bound around 6.25% since September.

@akm515 I think it depends on what you are trying to accomplish. I use ChatGPT a lot, but have noticed a lot of "hallucinations" recently. Interestingly, you can call it out - it will "correct" itself - but then still will give incorrect data.

@Calibre_CBI @texasrunnerDFW At very least make them non-compounding - it's wild the stories I've heard of people paying over their initial loan amount and still owing massive balances.