Rogs 🔍🔸 @ESRogs
Curious optimist. Sincerity over sarcasm. https://t.co/YyJXMnCCxN rogs.io San Francisco, CA Joined May 2008-
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@AmandaAskell Agree. We already have frameworks and protocols for this eg in dental care. You get the X ray every time you visit, but there won't necessarily be any action taken at that time, and everybody's fine with it.
@TheAnnaGat @AmandaAskell The dental analogy is a really good point that I haven't seen brought up before.
@CasinoDolphin @voidedintern This guy got it: x.com/scottmilleratx…
@voidedintern Lesson is don’t free ride on the diligence of someone with less of their book at stake than you. If their freeroll / flyer is a big deal to you, do your own work.
@prerat > it's NOT a bunch of agents all over the world trading and learning from each other Is the cost of high-quality, not-yet-used data going up or down? I don't know, but suspect up. If so, that would suggest a bunch of agents (generating data and) learning from each other.
@CanesDavid @DuaneStorey > Human beings are overwhelmingly compelled to act on incidentalomas I suspect that hypochondriacs are overrepresented among the people doctors interact with. Maybe most people do overreact. But their bad choices shouldn't be cause to keep the tech from folks who could benefit.
A cow is worth about $2,000, and a chicken is worth about $3. That gap is one of the most important, and least appreciated, facts in farm animal welfare. In an abstract sense, the economic value of an animal is created from its "labor" of converting corn and soy into meat. A cow does significantly more of this than a chicken because it lives longer and generates way more meat. This value is then the "budget" the farmer has to keep the animal healthy and productive. No one benefits if an animal gets sick and dies, so welfare and economic efficiency align up to this dollar threshold. This is why Innovate Animal Ag focuses primarily on poultry. When the value per animal is only a few dollars, the only way to ensure positive welfare for each individual within budget is to lower the *cost* of welfare, which is only possible through new technological capabilities.
@MichaelJDickens @IsaacKing314 Yeah, this seems like asking, "Why would anyone propose a regulation that mitigates but does not solve a problem?" Only seems confusing if there's an obvious full solution. But what's the obvious full solution?
@venkmurthy > Just lots of random blips that lead you to be beholden to repeat testing, over and over. Why is this inevitable? The early adopters of this technology are likely to be more sophisticated than the general public. People will adapt.
@DanielleFong And the user is Jeffrey or the patient?
@Aella_Girl Thought Critch had an interesting methodology here. Might be useful as inspiration. lesswrong.com/posts/KpD2fJa6…
@DrSiyabMD So then is the solution a slow rollout, giving the system time to adapt?
@VictorTaelin > to a robust decision making process I think the claim is that this premise is false. And it's not necessarily the doctors' fault. They're in a "semi-adversarial multi-party decision-making process", as per @shlevy. x.com/ESRogs/status/…
@gfodor @byersblake I think this guy had a good point. The doctors don't get to make the decisions in a vacuum. The patients and insurance companies are involved too. And interests are not all aligned. The doctors are telling us that they don't trust that multi-party process to get these decisions
I think this guy had a good point. The doctors don't get to make the decisions in a vacuum. The patients and insurance companies are involved too. And interests are not all aligned. The doctors are telling us that they don't trust that multi-party process to get these decisions right. Doesn't mean the doctors specifically are to blame. x.com/shlevy/status/…
If the data is low quality/irrelevant enough, the cost of capturing it *plus* the cost of down-weighting it in analysis can outweigh the benefit. More importantly though, doctors (rightly or wrongly) see themselves in a semi-adversarial multi-party decision-making process!
If the data is low quality/irrelevant enough, the cost of capturing it *plus* the cost of down-weighting it in analysis can outweigh the benefit. More importantly though, doctors (rightly or wrongly) see themselves in a semi-adversarial multi-party decision-making process!
@CanesDavid saying more data is bad is admitting your decision making is so broken that giving you more information causes you to make worse decisions
People complain about California governance but it’s orders of magnitude better than Illinois’ Both are one party states but California has a very different political culture. It’s much more libertarian. Governing authority is very diffuse. The people - exemplified by the referendum and the recall - have much more power. Party organizations are weak. Campaigns are money driven and candidate centric. The politicians who succeed within this system tend to be either charismatic individualists (Reagan, Schwarzenegger) or complete non-entities (Becerra, Bass). Illinois is the mirror opposite. It’s highly organized (especially the Cook County Democratic machine, the Chicago ward and precinct system) and top down. Politics rewards loyalty and favors. Politics is cynical (California’s is moralizing). Corruption is the glue of day to day political life. “Where’s mine” might be the watchword. Blagojevich saying “I’ve got this thing [Obama’s vacated Senate seat], and it’s golden” might be the most Illinois political thing ever said. California also benefits from dense clusters of rapidly growing, world beating industry. Illinois entirely lacks this type of ballast
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Illinois passes law to tax crypto transfers regardless of profit or loss, starting 2027.
@Aron_Adler @quiveron_x I mean it's even in the name — it's "less wrong", not "totally right".
You missed my point. I'm saying the patient paying would serve a similar function to this: > Informed patients often decline once they hear the base rates and expected harms. Just add on "once they hear the price" to it. The point is that the monetary cost would force them to consider more fully whether it's worth it. And then different patients could make different decisions based on how they feel about the risks. Which is how things should work in a free society!
@grok @bmorecardiology @CanesDavid @afshineemrani > Enabling routine full-body scans for the worried well scales overdiagnosis without proven mortality benefit If the patient had to pay for it, I suspect that would solve the problem.
> extra scans/biopsies with real risks/costs Isn't the right solution to weigh these risks against the actual probability that what you'd found was a true positive and not a false positive? Seems like the only reason not to do the original scan is if you just don't trust yourself to be able to do this analysis, or if you don't trust the patient not to insist on e.g. a risky biopsy that's not needed. But in the latter case, seems like it should be up to the patient whether they want the info.
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