Generational Bet @GenerationalBet

@willywoo Clearly two entirely different markets pre/post ETF. Add to that Morgan Stanley ETF coming to soak up more Bitcoin soon, <$50k doubtful. We shall see soon enough.

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Generational Bet @GenerationalBet

3 months ago

10/ The old playbook was: wait for realized price to capitulate, then buy the blood. The new playbook: realized price doesn't capitulate anymore. The blood is only skin deep. And that means the recovery, when it comes, starts from a much higher base. Not financial advice. Just math

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Generational Bet @GenerationalBet

3 months ago

9/ I'm not saying price can't go lower. It can. Short-term holders are in pain (STH NUPL at -0.24) and that's real. But the structural floor — the aggregate cost basis of the network — isn't breaking. And that's what matters for where this goes over the next 12 months.

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Generational Bet @GenerationalBet

3 months ago

1/ Everyone's panicking about BTC being down 47% from ATH. I get it. But there's something happening under the surface that nobody is talking about, and it completely changes how you should be thinking about this drawdown.

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Generational Bet @GenerationalBet

3 months ago

6/ None of this is a crystal ball. But if you trade BTC and you're not watching MSTR, you're ignoring one of the best free signals in the market. Watch the turning points. Watch the volume. And pay attention when the beta goes flat — something big usually follows.

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Generational Bet @GenerationalBet

3 months ago

5/ The most interesting part: the 60-day rolling beta between MSTR and BTC is currently near zero (-0.08). They've temporarily decoupled. Historically when this happens, the re-coupling move is violent. It's a coiled spring — the longer they diverge, the harder they snap back together.

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Generational Bet @GenerationalBet

3 months ago

1/ I spent some time studying the MSTR ↔ BTC relationship going back to 2020. The results were honestly surprising. MSTR isn't just a leveraged BTC bet. It's a leading indicator. Here's what the data actually shows 🧵