AG Thorson, CMT @GoldPredict

@silvertrade I'm a major silver bull, but I only assign a 5% probability of silver hitting $200 this summer.

@AshCrypto To the shorts.

It worries me how many people still don’t grasp the 4-year cycle. Crypto winter began October 6th 2025 and won’t end until October 2026. We’re about 66% through this bear market, yet many are still confused about why it’s “cold outside.” To put it in seasonal terms: it’s February 5th, but people are shocked to see snow and freezing temperatures when they go outside, expecting 85°F and sunny skies. Here’s the simple truth: Bitcoin peaks 152 weeks after the 4-year low and prices bottom 52 weeks after the cycle peak. This means winter won’t end until October 2026, so don't surprised as prices continue to decline. The next cycle top is projected to occur around September 2029. Eventually, the 4-year cycle will break—as all market patterns do—but until that happens, it remains the dominant trend and the single most important factor investors should be paying attention to. #bitcoin $crypto

@RobertIrwin Your dad would be so proud of all of you! Thanks for sharing.

@brianonorio Funny, I've thought the exact same thing!

@JoernGebert Unlikely. This seems more like the 2006 consolidation, suggesting we may not take out the $5,600 high until next year.

@IOHK_Charles Good idea. This is not a healthy place.

@Yesreel_ I've been forecasting an October 4-year cycle low since Q4 of last year. Don't bother buying anything crypto related until September or October. I think ADA could test $0.12 or lower by then.

Hoskinson Health Center is shutting its doors. Charles once envisioned it as the next Mayo Clinic, but healthcare is an extremely difficult industry, and the organization was losing millions of dollars annually. His construction company is also ceasing operations. @IOHK_Charles was not a domain expert in either healthcare or construction, but these failures still raise legitimate concerns. In his mind and heart, he's genuinely driven to make the world a better place. However, his ambitions are often so large and far-reaching that they are nearly impossible to execute IRL. The collapse of those ventures may not directly translate over into crypto, since those industries were outside his expertise. Still, it makes me question the long-term success of Cardano and Midnight. Was he too ambitious once again? Could these projects eventually face similar outcomes? My biggest concern with #Cardano is governance infighting. To become a true market leader, you typically need a strong executive function with clear direction. Cardano largely gave that up when it became fully decentralized. Imagine if Steve Jobs had tried to run Apple through a committee of non-visionary laypeople. Would Apple have become the company it is today? Probably not. I do not believe Charles will make the same governance mistakes with #Midnight. Because of that, I think Midnight has a much stronger chance of adoption and long-term success. However, Charles also has a tendency to piss-people-off, and he has been effectively blacklisted by parts of the broader crypto community. Even if Midnight becomes a great project technically, social and political resistance could limit adoption. There are still reasons for optimism. With the distractions surrounding Hoskinson Health increasingly behind him, Charles can devote more of his attention to Cardano and Midnight. After several ventures that failed to gain lasting traction, he also needs a significant win, and Midnight may be his strongest opportunity yet to build something with global impact. For that reason, I expect a substantial amount of his focus and energy to be directed toward it. As for investing during bear markets, success is often determined by the entry price. Even if Midnight never becomes a dominant project, there could still be substantial profit potential if purchased at the right valuation. If #Bitcoin bottoms around October in line with the historical four-year cycle, Midnight could potentially trade below $0.02. At those levels, the risk-to-reward ratio may offer an attractive entry point, even if the project achieves only moderate success rather than industry dominance.

@CryptoGnojek Long-term, yes. However, I think it will drop below $0.02 before the crypto bear market finally ends around October.

@TonySeverinoCMT Imagine the panic if/when prices drop below the $22.00 low. Currently, they hold 800,000 BTC.

@Washigorira Well done sir.

The yield on the 30-year note is danger close to taking out the 2023 high of 5.18%.

@cryptocupra The gold chart is monthly and arithmetic vs. a weekly logarithmic chart of BTC. Switch the Bitcoin chart to arithmetic and you analysis implodes. Stop this nonsense.

A few points: the gold chart is monthly, and the breakout came after a 14-year consolidation. Gold only moved about 8% above its previous highs, whereas BTC surpassed its prior high by roughly 90%. Conclusion - you’re comparing apples to basketballs to support your bias. BTC’s 4-year cycle is just now entering the second half, which historically supports another 50%+ decline from the recent highs. #Octoberlow

@LLuciano_BTC I hate to break it to you, but the odds of fresh lows in ADA are very high, in my view. Bitcoin likely wont bottom until October.

@jasonappleton First, it has to invalidate the 4-year cycle, which supports an October low. The next few weeks are crucial.

@BladeDefi Here's the bearish take.

@AshCrypto Maybe, but here's another potential outcome.

@SuperBitcoinBro Time will tell....