Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf
English & Film Professor/#Educator/#FilmBuff/Hobbyist Mapmaker: Threads of Past Elections & State Trends/Proud Long Island #ModerateDem/Dad💙👦🏼👩🏼🚫No DMs Shakespeareandhistory.com NY-4 Joined January 2022-
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@RDb6qj @AlphaBlk42120 @StatisticUrban State *level* (as in non-federal). Obviously Senate, Gov, AG, Auditor, etc. are all statewide offices. People do still split tickets for federal and row offices. See NC, for example.
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@AlphaBlk42120 @RDb6qj @StatisticUrban Yup, he’d probably be at more of a disadvantage if he were running for Senate.
@earlyvotedata If I only had as much disposable wealth as this guy has…😹
Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
something to monitor as time goes by in Maine: Platner's share may drop compared to previous polls, but does Collins also rise? If the former happens, but not the latter, maybe there is some sort of "shy Platner" effect Diff kind of race, but VA-AG polling provides an example
@RDb6qj @AlphaBlk42120 @StatisticUrban He means people are more willing to split their tickets for down ballot row offices as opposed to more high profile one like Gov or anything federal.
@ryanammenheuser No shortage of ancestral Dems in those areas.
Who can guess the election where Rs won both these races with the same vote share?
@earlyvotedata Time to break out the next Dan Sullivan clone!
@admcrlsn A hell of a career…and it’s not over yet.
The current map (a basic recreation of the 2010s one) is what I’d call a “soft” gerrymander. Rs drew the arm onto the 3rd to pull Portage (Stevens Point) from the newly won 7th to make the latter a bit redder. Geography, Dem rural loss and the loss of the 2nd Milwaukee seat in the 2000s did the rest of the work.
@nicolescua22 @RealColoradoMan I’ve posted it before, but it’s a pretty standard MapChart map, so it can be put together fairly easily.
Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
A dozen ratings changes in today's @InsideElections! The five biggies: PA8 (Bresnahan, R) Tilt GOP➡️ Toss-up WI3 (Van Orden, R) Tilt GOP➡️ Toss-up NJ7 (Kean, R) Toss-up➡️Tilt Democratic OH1 (Landsman, D) Toss-up➡️ Tilt Democratic IA3 (Nunn, R) Lean GOP➡️ Tilt GOP
@RealColoradoMan Yeah, he’s basically become a perennial candidate at this point. He has enough personal wealth where he can afford it though…
@Nebraskademsoc @AGlavkoverkh They drew it like this to remove Frankfort from the 6th to shore up Barr a little.
@Sinfulskin2 @ForeverBlue221 @DemDeanna @keeshalldaylong You got it Sin. 💙😎😺
Nassau Centrist Mapper retweeted
NEW Crystal Ball Senate Rating Changes Alaska Leans R to Toss-up NC Toss-up to Leans D Ohio Leans R to Toss-up GOP still favored because they only need one of the four Toss-ups, while Ds need all four
@MarkNNVA @AbolishTedCruz Yup, Hogan’s career was essentially over after that loss. 😂
Happy belated birthday to former Rep Roscoe Bartlett, who turned 100 on 6/3!! After an unsuccessful House run in ‘82, Bartlett won his seat (MD-06) in ‘92 when incumbent Beverly Byron was defeated by a more liberal Dem in the primary. Bartlett served until his defeat in ‘12. Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps
@AbolishTedCruz @MarkNNVA Yeah, Montgomery was deep red on this map because Morella was as liberal an R as you can get (and nearly won on the 2000s Dem gerrymander). Clinton won it with 55% on the same ticket. As for MD-05, Hogan was the son of a former Rep and ran a strong campaign.
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