Matthew Pot @MatthewPot
| Author of Grain Perspectives | Economist | Keynote Speaker | Raised on an #OntAg Farm | #CdnAg | 🌵= Sarcactus | grainperspectives.com Ontario, Canada Joined November 2012-
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December #corn futures high since 2000.
U.S. #corn export sales continue to be consistent.
Below is a look at the changes in the FedWatch probabilities by the end of 2026. The market is now pricing in more potential for hikes than cuts.
Pressure in the grains to start the week.
April WTI #Crude up 3% to start the week.
In February the Canadian economy lost a massive -83.9k jobs, following February’s -24.8k decrease. Expectations were for a growth of +10k jobs.
The chart below shows the probabilities for different levels of target rates by the end of 2026. Rate cut expectations are being priced out of the market. The market is now pricing in a 43% for no cut (up from 24% yesterday). Probabilities have gone from 2-3 cuts to a near coin toss for 1 cut.
Today’s Truth Social. The market has taken out probabilities for rate cuts this year. And in response Trump pushes for an emergency response from the Feds (to not even wait 6 days till the next meeting). Always trying to influence markets.
@ISU145 IMO its going to get worse... AI researching views, which will be increasingly written by AI... A game of telephone eventually.
What is your #sentiment on the #corn market in the next month?
What is your #sentiment on the #soybean market in the next month?
@JLinvilleFert That is a solid idea. I'll be honest. I am rarely a buggy person as I rarely have a quarter on me. lol.
Dalian (China) May #corn futures & CBOT May corn (green). China is back from holidays.
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