Patients Capital Management LLC @PCM_bio

The way the data are maturing, appears $elvn will be the winner in the post-Scemblix (2L) setting. So basically $MRK needs to go for 1L and 1L only? Is there even rationale to study in post-asciminib setting given the recent updates? Common sense would suggest you’d also switch from allosteric to active site in real world, no? Gets interesting if $elvn able to generate compelling 1L H2H data

Patients Capital Management LLC @PCM_bio

2 months ago

Scarcity value of $elvn rises $tern bamsec.com/filing/1193125…

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@JoseRestonVA @meremrtl Target population base case / range probably where this will deviate the most from your modeled outcomes It’s a big world

@Sanctuary_Bio Would note $tern was also not in $xbi .. $nuvl only real lumpy one Understand capital being returned but, save a few funds, there is much higher concentration elsewhere in the index

Talking past me, have been in $aclx $cnta $slno $apls $tern $nuvl YTD $aclx - no one but $gild $slno - see stock relative to ATH $APLS - ditto $tern - single party process despite the run-up. Had they turned over data standalone would have been chopped in half $cnta - good outcome (but not in $xbi and single party process. $lly has license to do whatever they want) $nuvl - this was $100 to $110 stock for a while. The merger proxy will likely show that Lobrena durability data and potential hair on ROS1 label led to their lowering ask $xbi moves when the aforementioned transact. Just watch

@Sanctuary_Bio Mostly rescue dogs though… M&A will translate to $xbi catching bid when the likes of $bmy $sny $abbv $amgn $azn transact in material way None of these processes were competitive.. none really since $cdtx

@tarrikzaid @jfais20 $celc not dosed chronically like $nuvl $nuvb

@biotech_bro I think it’s incredibly smart of them, wasn’t being sarcastic this time

$azn every pipeline drug has $5bn potential, always. Smart

$regn Translated as: 1) keep doing your science, the world needs it 2) just add some revenues bc 3) you’re making the science more expensive by not adding revenues !! Rooting for you all to stop making it so hard on your R&D organization $xbi $ibb

Patients Capital Management LLC @PCM_bio

3 days ago

$regn it’s more expensive for you to have your equity beta rise —> multiples continue to compress than it is to *pay-up’ for revenue growth. Your M&A math assumes cost of capital is static, but your WACC is trending to mid-cap bio. Much more expensive to do nothing

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$regn it’s more expensive for you to have your equity beta rise —> multiples continue to compress than it is to *pay-up’ for revenue growth. Your M&A math assumes cost of capital is static, but your WACC is trending to mid-cap bio. Much more expensive to do nothing

Patients Capital Management LLC @PCM_bio

3 weeks ago

$bmy see: $regn .. your stock will also trade like mid cap bio if you don’t diversify top-line into your upcoming data reads Of course, stock could go up, but a majority of your shareholder base don’t want to invest into binaries. And so they rotate into growthy tech Stop

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Ditto $insm .. another case of mis-mgmt of analysts / expectations / comms joining the likes of $slno $apls $gern $iova $swtx (+ $abvx and $cytk (Blum may have turned corner)) .. all unique sits/ TAs but consistent variable is you (investor) listen to conference call / presentation and say “would love to have been fly-on-wall when they decided that was good idea”

Patients Capital Management LLC @PCM_bio

a month ago

$insm maybe Will Lewis should spend less time on space travel and more time managing analyst / investor expectations With that said, is Insmed vulnerable down here??

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In other news this week, scarcity value of $xene rises Unfortunate outcome for $prax but would argue it was a call option program investors.praxismedicines.com/news-releases/…

Patients Capital Management LLC @PCM_bio

2 years ago

To extent the betting markets are correct and a mental health crisis ensues, it’s conceivable that psychiatry will be one of biopharma’s highest growth markets over the next few years $itci $axsm $xene $nmra

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Disagree here. SMID cap biotechs can’t really just PR Ph3 data into a capital raise and not do a conference call given materiality (as single molecule business). Not necessarily a Reg FD issue to just PR data, but if they are contemplating a financing they would have to market to investors / conduct roadshow / have pricing & allocation discussions. This would require a presentation of some sort, so best practice is to do it for public / analysts. I don’t think the cadence of their was comms was incorrect / unjustified. Just the HOW data was communicated $abvx

@TheBiotechBear You are #AbiMaxxing. It’s okay

@A_May_MD @DueDoctor Probably could have put the cancer data on a different slide with footnotes and stock is at $150. Own goals count just the same as normal goals unfortunately

@Banana_Oncology @idalopirdine 😂

Key takeaway from all the drama since yester-eve: Nothing said on BioX will matter for the long-term outcome for $abvx .. You could say that arguments here are / have actually created distractions in real world (which shouldn’t be case, but alas, BioX has been piling into this stock for quite some time now / post-induction data and since it became a consensus M&A target) It’s not on Adam M to defend the fort (unfort probably not helping matters despite the thorough review. If it’s so clearly explainable, why hasn’t mgmt done this instead!).. To that end, it’s on MDG et al to course correct with their messaging, concisely / clearly explain the finer pts of safety data in due course, and stop with the own goals (any podcasts, commenting on M&A spec / engaging with press on rumors, period, full stop, and doing their best to avoid leaks going forward). It shouldn’t be annoying to own a stock, and it’s been very annoying to own $abvx since ~1/6/26 (see below). Would hazard that it would be equally annoying to be a counterparty / be worried that flying anywhere in EU airspace would be construed as offer to acquire WholeCo, or that somehow X valuation cases are guiding the range of outcomes (sarcasm, maybe?) With all that said, will still cheer for every move to the upside and get a good laugh in while someone #AbiMaxxes into stock. In the end, we’re all on the same team/ rooting for good drugs for sick people. Onward #PCManiacs

Patients Capital Management LLC @PCM_bio

a week ago

Still spectacular efficacy for $abvx ..but some key concerns that are all somewhat related 1) that we may have a credibility issue, which happens way too much in high-flyer SMID land. Lot of unnecessary podcasts, interviews, etc that are not investor focused, but discussing

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Tomorrow is a new day $xbi $ibb

Probably not on labeling, but the CD delay does (ironically) create a nice window for M&A here. Let’s see what they do wrt financing and how much capital they can raise. We have going concern issue going into CD data mid-year and not nearly enough cash for commercial If there is CVR(s), imagine it would be on CD data + commercial milestones

Still spectacular efficacy for $abvx ..but some key concerns that are all somewhat related 1) that we may have a credibility issue, which happens way too much in high-flyer SMID land. Lot of unnecessary podcasts, interviews, etc that are not investor focused, but discussing topics that are highly relevant to investors. I.e. Why is CEO opining on M&A process dynamics around JPM between data releases? Why do I have to double check my Spotify pods to see if MDG is live somewhere? If you go this route, do regular conference calls like your peers so everyone on same page and expectations aligned 2) building on that, if you headline “no new safety signals,” let’s make sure we have all the details on those patients prepped so it’s clear there are no new safety signals. The clustering of cancer cases is too non-random to be dismissed, and if you PR no new safety signals but can’t answer all Qs on the cancer cases (particularly the 1 that isn’t explained), which is the right answer? 3) were these cancer cases known in prior DSMB reviews, and given they appear to be material (based on stock price reaction), shouldn’t mgmt have understood the ins and outs of all these cases for the call today? 4) what might happen in longer-term safety study at 50mg dose. Does that NMSC data balloon to a handful more and is it worth the risk? It’s esp odd because the prior data disclosure from Study 108 had dosed 50mg for two to 4 years without cancer incidence. Here we saw those cases in 52 weeks 5) if all this data are on the label, what does $abbv or $jnj counter-detailing look like to preserve and grow their franchise (and upcoming launches)? All that said, this company needs a lot of cash to commercialize against the incumbents and probably a better steward to do so, because, again, the drug works very well and plenty of patients could benefit from it. Talk is cheap in the meantime

Patients Capital Management LLC @PCM_bio

a week ago

Did not read far enough down PR before this post. Internet is forever. Imagine the debate on the 50mg dose going to create some persistent noise $abvx

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