Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

Wealth management. Markets since 2003. Current research S&P holdings to 1957 & Polymarket database growing @ 25M rows / day. Prediction Market Advocate. pendulumflow.substack.com Joined June 2009

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

21 hours ago

@Meter11m @grok @TheZeitgeistNZ I mean *you and I will be dead by then.

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Because our working age population is still growing and our birth rates have only recently gotten well below replacement. Compare that to places like Germany or Japan and our demographics are some of the strongest in the developed world. That means that we will be one of the last wealthy countries to go through the demographic transition. And as other countries fail we will have a huge pool of imigrants to choose from (NZ benefited hugely from people escaping South Africa). So with the right imigration policy we can keep things going for a long time. By then hopefully we work out a may to motivate higher birth rates but either way, we will be dead.

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

2 days ago

@JesseWalkerWhi1 By that i mean we didn't let nature run it's course by industrialising. We can't get off this train now without carnage.

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

2 days ago

@JesseWalkerWhi1 This is what letting nature run it's course looks like.

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

3 days ago

The black death resulted an an eventual boom after 150+ year depression and radical inflation. People under the impression population collapse is a good thing.

Cultural Dementia @Meter11m

3 days ago

@MHReddell @BoBhorowhenua Japan will "cease to function as a society". They never seem to consider "green shoots" or "bounce back" - society recovered after the black death. x.com/PendulumFlow/s…

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

2 days ago

@Meter11m @grok @TheZeitgeistNZ Those are my exact words "It allows you to perpetuate the ponzi a bit longer." But there is a lot of value in being one is the last functioning societies. When the euro fails and the riots / civil wars become common there will be a lot of people looking for a new home.

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

2 days ago

@Meter11m @TheZeitgeistNZ @grok can you please explain why a society with a low burth rate will eventually struggle to function.

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

2 days ago

A static population? New Zealand’s birth rate is 1.55 and dropping. With no imigration the popuilation will drop by 47% in two generations. That is 2.52 million fewer people. Increasing margin per person... So you own a restraunt and each year you have fewer customers but you say that the solution is to make the food more expensive? You own a home and you say the solution for abandoned homes and negative equity is to put the price up on your home? Fixed overheads are only fixed in the short term... tell me please how the fixed overheads decline for maintining our roads or water systems? They don't but in two generations we would have half the tax revenue to cover all the costs.

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

2 days ago

@winstonpeters Based 💝🫡

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

3 days ago

@Meter11m @MHReddell @BoBhorowhenua Sign me up.

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

3 days ago

@ANickB85 @TheZeitgeistNZ How can wealth increase if your number of customers shrinks and your fixed overheads remain?

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

3 days ago

Any debt based system is ultimate a ponzi. It can only be sustained with growth. Debt is only take if you expect to make more money in the future. There is no growth when your population is declining and the fixed overheads of maintaining your society remain or increase with old people. So without population growth capitalism fails along with our standard of living.

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

3 days ago

@Meter11m @TheZeitgeistNZ When you have a small population like NZ it actually is if you have the right policy. It allows you to perpetuate the ponzi a bit longer. Trust me, you don't want the alternative. Watch what happens to Japan over the next decade.

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

4 days ago

@Kiwipally Note however you don't get your tax dollars back when you retire. Today's taxes pay for today's pensions. It is a welfare, not an entitlement for paying into the system. And if women never took time off for child then society ends.

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

4 days ago

@Kiwipally Fair. Also the system was designed for a pyramid demographic with a lower life expectancy.

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Pendulum Flow @PendulumFlow

4 days ago

@Meter11m @TheZeitgeistNZ The videos echo what I was saying. And there certainly has been a faster demographic change in the past. The right imigration policy is our only hope. Not saying the current one is right.

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Darren of Plymouth @DarrenPlymouth

4 days ago

“I never thought I’d live to see the day when the right wing would become the cool ones giving the middle finger to the establishment, and the left wing becoming the snivelling self-righteous twats, going around shaming everyone.” - John Lydon, The Sex Pistols