ProfCatherineMitchell @ProfCMitchell

Hug a climate scientist today! Just don’t make it weird, they are already dealing with enough | First Dog on the Moon | The Guardian theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

Tension and uncertainty among Russians are growing. In the spring of 2026, Russian polling agencies recorded a noticeable decline in several key indicators: approval of Putin's performance, trust in him, and the overall emotional mood. The most intriguing point was the closure of Russian Public Opinion Research Center’s (VCIOM) open trust rating: when respondents are asked to name politicians they trust without being prompted with names. In March 2026, this indicator for Putin fell to 29.5% - the lowest level since the start of the full-scale war. After that, VCIOM did not publish the figures for April and May. The gap between the open trust rating (29.5%) and the closed trust rating (72-73%) is roughly 1:2.5. It reflects the distance between Putin's actual political weight and the ritual of loyalty to the "tsar." The reason is simple: Russians do not want a loser president. Putin's ratings were sustained not simply by war, but by the prospect of a victorious war. He traded Russia's development and prosperity for greatness, but now Russians see neither greatness nor prosperity. Let’s take a closer look at what is happening within Russian society. First, most Russians continue to support the war. This is illustrated by Levada Center's May data. Support for the actions of the Russian army, which had been declining since the end of last year, suddenly rebounded by six points in May, reaching 74%. At the same time, the share of those favoring peace negotiations, which had remained at around two-thirds since December, has been slowly shrinking for three consecutive months - down seven points, to six out of ten. Meanwhile, the camp supporting the continuation of military operations has grown to 30%. The main motive among supporters of peace has not changed: "too many casualties and heavy losses." What happened? Television stopped talking about peace negotiations. As long as negotiations seemed realistic, peace appeared to be a way out. Once they collapsed, part of Russian society obediently switched back to supporting the war. This is conformism. Russians do not want peace or war - they want to be on the side of the winner. The demand for negotiations was, in fact, a demand for a victorious peace. Since no victorious peace was granted, they have taken back the war. However, there is a dangerous trap here for the Kremlin: Russians agree to war, but not to a war without victory. They agree to anything except a compromise that would be perceived as defeat. This is dangerous for the Kremlin because it calls into question the legitimacy of the entire system of power - and Putin above all - if Russian society is no longer given proof of greatness and victory. Putin is doomed to constant escalation. The situation is further complicated by public fatigue and rising anxiety among Russians. The state of the Russian economy is deteriorating, while the defense sector is no longer able to offset the decline in the civilian economy. This is especially noticeable in the regions. By the end of 2025, the deficit of consolidated regional budgets had reached a record 1.48 trillion rubles ($20.56 billion) - 3.6 times more than a year earlier. Seventy-four regions, including Moscow and the oil and gas districts, ended up in deficit. The first months of 2026 did not reverse the trend: industry is stagnating, construction is shrinking, corporate profits are falling, and debt burdens are increasing. The accompanying symptoms include a sharp rise in wage arrears, large-scale revisions of regional budgets for 2026 involving spending cuts, primarily social, as well as a hidden employment crisis - where there is no work, but employees are not laid off; instead, they are shifted to reduced working weeks and unpaid leave. Official unemployment statistics barely reflect this. Yet since December 2025, part-time employment has been rising at large and medium-sized enterprises: 4.6 million out of 33 million workers. The map of Russian society’s concerns, which the Levada Center publishes annually, looks telling in May 2026. At the top - for twenty years in a row - is rising prices: 55%. The "special military operation" and related issues worry 35%. And then comes the most interesting part - the destruction of a comfortable life and the feeling of war at home have become additional drivers of tension: fear of explosions and terrorist attacks has jumped by 8 points since November - to 27%. One in five (22%) cites internet restrictions and the blocking of social media as among the most pressing issues - on the list of problems, the digital blockade now ranks alongside poverty and lack of access to healthcare (both at 19%). The state has managed to turn a disabled messenger app into a social problem on the level of poverty. That takes some doing. Many Western observers have been inspired by rumors of elite dissatisfaction in Russia. Indeed, Moscow's economic circles have seen unusually open criticism of the government from parts of the financial elite. However, I suggest we avoid wishful thinking: no direct scenario of a political crisis emerges from this data. The most realistic scenario is the continuation of the war, coupled with a search for political doping: events that can be sold to society as victories, as proof that Russia is moving in the right direction. The problem is that the bar has risen - what would have been considered a triumph a year ago would now look like capitulation. Therefore, stronger doses of doping will be required: escalation in Ukraine aimed at maximizing destruction, a military adventure somewhere in Europe, new strikes, nuclear signaling, or provocations against the West. The ground has already been prepared: 54% of Russians believe that the war in Ukraine could escalate into an armed conflict with NATO - half the population is living in anticipation of a major war. The Kremlin’s logic is as old as time: unite through fear. Putin may also be saved by an "unexpected event" - a black swan, as has already happened when the U.S. started a war with Iran. Here, it’s not even necessary to do anything: it’s enough to interpret it skillfully. A U.S. defeat or stalemate in the war with Iran could be presented as a victory of Russia and its allies over America - because in the minds of Russians, the war with Ukraine has long been just a fragment of a larger Russian war with the West. Within this worldview, any failure by Washington automatically counts as a point for Moscow, regardless of whether it had a hand in it. There is also a third scenario - not for Putin, but against him. This is not a scenario of popular uprising, but one of self-preservation by the Russian elites. But such an option is possible only under a sharp convergence of several factors: military defeat, economic collapse, the loss of the ability to allocate resources, and the emergence of a figure or group capable of guaranteeing the elite’s security after the transition. So far, there are few such signs.

In Belfast.. - We saw pogroms - targeting black and brown people - These are riots not protests - It’s criminal acts not an expression of legitimate concerns - These are student nurses presumably doing NHS placements Language matters: stop sanitising what we are witnessing. x.com/Taj_Ali1/statu… x.com/Taj_Ali1/statu…

Good news! Ministers have finally given green light to new #NaturalHistory GCSE. Big hats off to tireless advocate Mary Colwell 🙌 Now young people will be able to get to know & love the natural world & gain vital skills to protect it @curlewcalls🌷🌳 🦅🦡 theguardian.com/education/2026…

David Lammy’s proposals to restrict the right to jury trial have been examined by the Justice Committee of the House of Commons. And. Well. Um. It’s *quite* the report. I think it’s actually worse than politely scathing. It’s embarrassing 👇🏼🪡🧵

5 million fish are killed every minute by fishing industry Super trawlers are devouring the ocean of marine life These ships can catch, process and store hundreds of thousands of tonnes of fish This is not sustainable Make it stop Ban super trawlers now

UK urged not to further weaken EV rules as CO2 impact revealed Loopholes allowing more plug in hybrids could add 17m tonnes of CO2 by 2030, prompting calls to strengthen UK EV rules. theguardian.com/business/2026/…

@Nuclear_BP Meanwhile ... truly concerning, and points to a key problem for nuclear – ramping risk of attack on civil reactors and high-level radiation spent fuel.This one issue alone brings into stark focus the deeply irresponsible nature of new nuclear PR. theguardian.com/world/2026/jun…

HPC is French & Chinese owned & using a french design, mainly produced in France. British customers are paying France handsomely (far more than the sensible alternatives) to keep their ‘national champion’ EDF afloat whilst diversifying french electric supply away from nuclear.

Britain Remade @BritainRemade

7 days ago

Hinkley Point C might be delayed again. Why? Because Natural England say the £700 million spent on fish protection at Britain's next nuclear power station is not enough. We can't go on like this.

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Extraordinarily unpleasant behaviour by Trump. Good for Welker.

Jake Tapper 🦅 @jaketapper

a week ago

That is some wild, unhinged stuff from the President. Welker is a good person and honest journalist and didn’t deserve that but more importantly we have a president who constantly pushes conspiracy theories with zero evidence and can’t respond when politely challenged on that.

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This is really stupid, and it’s not getting enough attention. The Trump administration is pulling a working $368 million ocean monitoring system out of the water, equipment taxpayers already bought, built, and sank into the deep ocean. And they are doing it right when the oceans are behaving in ways that alarm the scientists who study them. Record-breaking temperatures. A system of Atlantic currents that may be lurching toward collapse. The response? Yank out the instruments and walk away. That is not budgeting. That is smashing the gauges while the engine is on fire and calling it efficiency. For what? The Trump administration dressed it up as a “nimbler approach” and “smart lifecycle management,” which is fancy nonsense for “we shut it off and hoped nobody would ask why.” There is no return-on-investment analysis. They cannot show taxpayers save a dime, because the gear is already paid for and the science it produces protects real money and real lives. The kicker: the same people killing the monitors want to mine the deep sea for minerals. So they are destroying the only tools that could measure what that mining does. That is not an accident. That is the point. You cannot see the damage if you break the instruments first. cnn.com/2026/06/03/cli…

UK tax has gone up significantly over the last 25 years But the tax paid by the average UK worker has not This apparent miracle was achieved by taxing “other people”: higher earners, capital, property, banks, etc The strategy has run out of road A 🧵 on what happens next.

The real two-tier scandal in the UK is the relentless double standard approach of a media which lets one party leader get away with financial dodgery that would drive them into a frenzy if it involved someone their billionaire owners didn’t want in power because they believed in things like fairness and equality

I'm fuming to read this! 🤬 Year in and year out this kind of crap happens in the summer, when most birds are already breeding, not just with Swifts, but with all birds! 😒 Birds and their nests are protected by law, but the law is clearly inadequate and is riddled with loopholes that councils, builders, farmers... anyone really, can exploit. 😡 Yet still some wonder why the UK is the most nature depleted place on earth... theguardian.com/environment/20…

IMO the rule of law is central to a thriving democracy. There should be equal opportunity of access to legal services for everyone.

Institute for Fiscal Studies @TheIFS

a week ago

NEW: Cuts to civil legal aid – government-funded support towards legal costs – mean that 3.5 million people live in civil legal aid ‘deserts’: areas with no active providers. 🧵 THREAD on @m_dominguezp and Tom Burrows’ new report:

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🌍 World Environment Day 2026 We cannot have a healthy planet without healthy rivers. Rivers provide drinking water, support wildlife, nourish our landscapes and connect communities to nature. Yet across the UK, they are being treated as dumping grounds for sewage, agricultural pollution and industrial waste. If we want thriving wildlife, climate resilience and healthy communities, we must restore and protect the rivers that sustain them. This World Environment Day, take action for your local river. Write your councillor and urge them to support stronger action to tackle river pollution. ⏱️It only takes two minutes. Contact your local councillor today: bit.ly/3REu7jX #RescueOurRivers

Britain should add its name to this list

Sweden in EU @SwedeninEU

2 weeks ago

Letter from 🇸🇪 🇩🇰 🇫🇮 🇨🇿 🇳🇱 🇵🇱 🇪🇪 🇱🇻 🇱🇹 🇮🇸 🇳🇴 proposing new measures to limit EU tourist visas for Russian citizens 👇

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theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

theguardian.com/environment/20…

This young man is doing a great journalist job …..

Caolan @CaolanReports

2 weeks ago

Every sign at this refinery in Ireland is in russian. The official website is a .RU domain. There’s no reason to hide it because local politicians are openly doing it for them.

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