PROPrietaryREasoning @PropReasoner

The Fed’s latest projections show that officials now expect the Fed Funds benchmark rate to be at 5.1% at the end of 2024, up from 4.6% from the previous projections made in June. #higherforlonger #InterestRates #FedDecision

Opendoor’s gross profit from sales has been calculated to 9/16 #opendoor $open

University of Michigan consumer survey: Year-ahead inflation expectations in Sept fell to 3.1%, the lowest levels since early 2021 Five-year-ahead inflation expectations also ticked down and are near pre-pandemic levels sca.isr.umich.edu

Current market expectations for path of the Fed Funds Rate... -Sep 20, 2023: Pause -Nov 1, 2023: Pause -Dec 13, 2023: Pause -Jan 31, 2024: Pause -Mar 20, 2024: Pause -May 1, 2024: Pause -Jun 12, 2024: 25 bps cut to 5.00-5.25% -Cuts to 4% by Sep 2025

Median U.S. asking rent in August was $2,052, just $2 below record high set a year earlier and up from $2,038 a month earlier per ⁦@Redfin⁩ … rate of change might have eased (bottom panel), but renters still feel pinch of higher prices in level terms

"Inventory is incredibly limited especially at the affordable price points," said NAR deputy chief economist @JessicaLautz. "We're seeing millennials encounter a very difficult housing market, especially with rising interest rates." spr.ly/6010PNx1i

Watch those CPI-PCE wedges: Based on the August CPI and PPI, forecasters expect the core PCE index rose 0.14% in Aug, the smallest rise in 13 months This would lower the 12-month rate to 3.8% (lowest since 6/2021) and the 3-month annualized rate to 2.3% (lowest since 12/2020)

@Attomdata's Q2 2023 U.S. #ResidentialProperty #MortgageOrigination Report shows that while #mortgagelending is down 38% annually, it was up 21% quarterly, the first such increase in 2 years; resulting from purchase, #REFI & #HELOC increases: ow.ly/sgHB50PGt1f #propertydata

The required mortgage payment to purchase a home has more than doubled from January 2020 to June 2023. This is a result of a 330+ bps increase in mortgage interest rates and a 50%+ increase home values over that period. Explore here: proprietaryreasoning.com/housing-afford… #housingaffordability #housingmarket #mortgageinterestrates

IF U.S. incomes spiked 69%, we'd return to pre-pandemic housing affordability levels. IF U.S. home prices fell 41%, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability. IF mortgage rates fell 4.3 percentage points (from 7.26% to 2.96%), we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability.

Gen Z spends a higher share of income toward rent at 25.6%, as many of the youngest apartment renters have lesser incomes but also lesser other bills in that life stage -- allowing them to prioritize premium locations. The data reflects actual rent-to-income ratios for households (with roommates) signing a new market-rate apartment lease. The median Gen Z apartment renting household makes $65,000 (with roommates). Meanwhile, the median apartment household for other generations: Millennials come is at $83,000 with 22.0% of income spent on rent. Gen X apartment renters make $86,000 at the median and spend 20.7% of income on rent. Baby Boomers come in slightly lower at $79,000, reflecting that some older renters are living off retirement income, and spend 23.5% of income toward rent. As noted in a related post yesterday, market-rate apartments generally serve mid- and upper-income households -- which is why these rent-to-income ratios are lower than you might have expected (though these numbers align more closely with REIT public disclosures than do most third-party studies). Additionally, most other studies inflate rent-to-income by mix-matching datasets, marrying public data on incomes (lesser incomes) against private sector data on asking rents (higher rents, skewed upward by professionally managed, investment-grade rentals).

How do Existing-Home Sales respond to rising mortgage rates? @firstam charted 12 historical periods to visualize the impact. The most recent period showed a particularly pronounced decline. #mortgagerates #homesales

Rents are growing, but at the 2nd slowest pace since 2010. #rents #housing

Goldman’s most recent economic and housing forecast. #goldmansachs #housing

Active listing count up 7%+ YoY in June. Lack of for-sale inventory continues to prop up housing prices in an elevated rate environment. A long way to go, but a small step in the right direction toward a more normal housing market. #housingmarket

The main challenge in the current real estate market is the lack of available inventory. The main challenge causing the lack of inventory is that many homeowners are experiencing “rate lock” - they have a mortgage rate so low on their current house that it makes it difficult to give it up when they know the rate will be much higher on the next home they buy. Here’s the breakdown:

The Fed is widely expected to skip/pause interest rate hikes today. That would be the first such move in 15 months. Yesterday’s 4.0% headline CPI print provided further support for that call. #federalreserve #inflation #interestrates

The labor market continues to prove resilient. The latest ADP Private Payrolls report show 278,000 jobs added in May. While the JOLTS Survey shows more than 10.1 million job openings in April. #EconomicTrends #JobMarket #ADP #JOLTS proprietaryreasoning.com/surprising-res…

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Wall Street Investors have officially abandoned the Housing Market. With Redfin reporting a colossal 49% crash in investor purchases in Q1 2023. This is the biggest annual decline on record. Even bigger than the drop that occurred in 2005 right before the last crash.

U.S. Home Prices increased for the second straight month in March 2023, according to the most recent data from S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index. Home prices increased 0.4% MoM and 0.6% YoY. #housingmarket #caseshiller proprietaryreasoning.com/sp-case-shille…