SmallRefineriesofAmerica @SmallRefineries

$CLMT another banger update from the godfather @ScottIrwinUI Read this and your jaw should drop if you fully understand the dynamics in play & how egregiously wrong MRL estimates are for 2027. Date: June 10, 2026 Summary: The purpose of this article is to translate the required pace of D4 RIN generation into physical volumes of domestic production and imports needed to meet the final 2026 and 2027 RVOs under the RFS. The results reveal a demanding outlook on both margins of supply. On the domestic side, meeting the final RVOs requires FAME biodiesel to run essentially at its highest sustained pace on record and renewable diesel to run well beyond any pace it has ever achieved, with the combined sector operating at 90 percent of operable capacity in 2026 and 95 percent in 2027. While these are rates that have been demonstrated over multi-month stretches in the past, they sit far above the roughly 60 percent utilization observed as recently as 2025. On the import side, the required volumes are comparable to the standards of 2023 and 2024, but they call for a rebound in a flow that has collapsed under the 45Z credit, for which imported biofuels are not eligible. These two margins are not independent. The more imports are discouraged by policy, the more of the burden falls on domestic production, and the higher the implied capacity utilization must climb. Our assumption of 600 million gallons of imports in 2026 already presumes a meaningful recovery from the near-zero pace of early 2026; if imports fail to materialize, domestic plants would have to run above the 90 percent rate assumed here—pushing utilization toward, and in some months past, nameplate capacity—or the D4/D5 RIN bank would be drawn down and compliance deficits would accumulate. As shown in our previous article, the D4/D5 bank is essentially exhausted after 2026, which leaves little room for that third margin of adjustment in 2027. The bottom line is that the final Set 2 RVOs ask the domestic biomass-based diesel industry to operate at the upper edge of its demonstrated capability while simultaneously relying on a recovery in imports that current and proposed policy work against. Whether the market can deliver on both fronts at once is a central question for 2026 and 2027."

@DSyphard83842 @OilandGibbs @jantenbensel The #RFS mandate/obligation jumped $3 in one month, now adding +$15.20 per barrel of gasoline Who benefits from added costs? How is this good for consumers? @consumerpal @CatoInstitute @ceidotorg @4AmericanEnergy

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As seen by a concerned motorist in Congressman @VernBuchanan district. Limiting consumer is one way to mandate E15. This is a problem for boaters and small engine users. @therealnmma @MRFlegislative

@jantenbensel 45 cents per gallon in added costs. @RFSNerdy

@ISAACforEnergy Meanwhile, the ethanol industry is supporting California fuel policies that have led to refinery closures. x.com/EthanolRFA/sta…

Renewable Fuels Association @EthanolRFA

3 weeks ago

Just like the state's drivers, we're hoping to see it at the pumps quickly!

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Ethanol industry endorses California fuel policies that have created the highest gas prices in America, led to 2 refinery closures, and the loss of thousands of high paying union jobs. But, it's good for the ethanol industry. CC: @APIenergy

Renewable Fuels Association @EthanolRFA

3 weeks ago

Just like the state's drivers, we're hoping to see it at the pumps quickly!

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The #RFS mandates are costing consumers 45 cents per gallon today, up 10 cents from 30 days ago. Paying 45 cents to save 20 cents is fuzzy math.

@bradpemberton @RepFeenstra That tax is 45 cents per gallon today, up 10 cents in the past month.

How much is the ethanol mandate costing consumers? Updated analysis from @EPRINC_DC based on historic RIN price increases shows 45 cents per gallon. @FuelingUSJobs @consumerpal @ts_fisher @CatoInstitute @EnergyAbsurdity @4AmericanEnergy @ceidotorg @STUARTTURLEY16 @AFPMonline

Historic price increases for RINs/RVO coincide with Renewable Fuels Month. The RVO cost has shot in $1 in a matter of days, costing $14.33 per barrel of refined product. This is good for ethanol producers that get the subsidy from the #RFS. It is NOT good for consumers who pay more at the pump to subsidize the ethanol industry. Follow @OilandGibbs for more market analysis.

"But outside of re-opening the Strait, the most impactful thing the Administration and Congress can do would be to revisit the biofuel mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard. That law, alone, is adding more than 30-cents per gallon to the cost of supplying the domestic market with gasoline and diesel." Preach. #RFS afpm.org/newsroom/blog/…

Now Congress is considering a bill - #HR1346 - that will lead to more refinery closures. This so-called E15 legislation prohibits EPA from granting regulatory relief to small refineries… something that Congress rightly built into the RFS mandates b/c small refineries face disproportionate costs of federal ethanol mandates. It will lead to small refineries shutting down. Of all groups, API is leading the charge on these provisions! @APIenergy - anti petroleum institute. Protect Small Refineries!

@GrowthEnergy 35 cents in "savings" in Minnesota thanks to the 36 cents in subsidies that consumers are paying because of the increasing costs of RINs and the RVO.

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Chairman John Boozman tells @brownfield the Senate will largely use the House farm bill as a template but leave out nationwide year-round E15, Prop 12 repeal, and EPA labeling language due to bipartisan support concerns. #FarmBill #AgPolicy #E15 (AUDIO🎙️) brownfieldagnews.com/news/boozman-e…

@GasBuddyGuy It could go even higher because of the major draw downs in the RIN bank. @OilandGibbs provides good analysis. How can more liquidity be added to the RIN market?

@farmdocDaily @ScottIrwinUI @fox32news @ScottIrwinUI - you do a good job of explaining some of these complex issues. One thing people need to know is that E15 may be 15 cents cheaper per gallon, but consumers are paying 36 cents per gallon because ethanol is in the gas (RFS compliance costs due to ethanol mandate).

This legislation could lead to dozens of small refineries being closed. The Small Refineries Coalition's concerns were absolutely ignored in #HR1346. Eliminating EPA's authority to provide relief will harm America's energy security. Ethanol will not replace 1.4 million barrels per day of refining capacity.

If you haven't been following the Set2 D4 squeeze, it's time to wake up. @EPA has a real problem on their hands. What was an ambitious RVO to begin with has burned through over 2/3 of its SRE-driven RIN bank in 4 months that needed to last 2 years. 2027 is a PROBLEM. Set3 2028+ is looking to need the first D4 reduction in history (or atleast shifting into D5). @sab__RIN__a lays out our RIN model scenario and its implications brilliantly in our April RIN generation note ⬇️

Sabrina Gutierrez @sab__RIN__a

4 weeks ago

📣Post-April RIN Outlook Our calculated RIN bank sits at 800M vs. 2.9B starting the year, leaving only 2 months of availability at April run-rates. This raises pressure on RIN prices to swing net exports to net imports to keep the 2026 RIN bank neutral. See more ⬇️

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Should the Senate strip the small refinery provisions from the "E15 bill?" Nearly every trade and labor union that works in America's refineries opposes this bill because it forces small refineries to absorb more costs from the ethanol mandate by stopping EPA from granting relief to small refineries. Eliminating regulatory relief could mean refinery closures and union job losses.