Uncomfortable Math @TheMacroMath

Watched a cute animal video that I knew to be AI all the way through

You don’t realize just how easy it is to be in the top 10% until you see how lazy 90% of people are You don’t realize just how hard it is to be in the top 1% until you see how driven the other 10% of people are

Absolute psychotic way of loading the dishwasher by my cleaning people

Seems like a good chance we'll get a 50% drawdown from ATH in semis and AI names over the summer. We were overextended. Companies are reigning in token spend. There's a clear inflection that already started a month ago in the s-curve. Gonna be lots of narrative shifts around the sustainability and profitability of infra spend going forward. OpenAI and Anthropic are toast as more people realize that those will be the lowest margin megacap tech businesses ever conceived. Semis and app layer will be fine and whoever has the massive cajones to buy this capitulation dip will be rewarded. Don't overreact just from today. These have been my feelings for weeks. Today is mostly about rerating rate cuts for the remainder of the year. The strong jobs report means there cannot be any, and the chance of hikes has considerably increased. So don't confuse a rates story with a long-term AI uptrend despite what the narratives will surely say over the ensuing weeks.

@mikel420 @TedPillows He’s leveraged to the tits on fiat which he used to buy his spot BTC.

@Evan_ss6 ELMT

The FOMO in semis is palpable, and investor positioning is now heavily crowded in that space. At the same time, the sentiment is negative on hyperscalers, because of concerns regarding their CapEx spend on semis and questions on the ROI of that spend. But the catch is that if hyperscalers don't see good returns on their AI CapEx (semi spend), there won't be sustainable demand for semis, like the valuations and margins of many of these stocks are now pricing. So both can't be true. Either semis valuations have gone too far, or hyperscalers are too low.

@MrBDelany @MRatable @PaneerCap The counter point to your question is that capex goes up forever and never stops, this is obviously untrue, this it is cyclical

@joeg816 @BowTiedBull $20k+ a month in spending with $0 in bills cept insurance/property tax. What are you taking about?

Trump every time his ratings go down

Fox News @FoxNews

a month ago

BREAKING: White House locked down after as many as 30 shots fired in vicinity.

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@jjen_abel $250k minimum for enterprise

EDA bulls are pitching 70x earnings on companies that are getting their IP business eaten by in-house hyperscaler teams. Synopsys income from design IP dropped 48% in Q1 of this year from $126.5M to $66.1M… The “AI” story people are shilling isn’t going to fix that problem and in actuality if successful leads to you needing less seats not more. Meanwhile they lost the ability to sell to China which was their fastest growing market. The Chinese EDA companies on the other hand like Empyrean, Primarius, are going crazy and are both growing revenue double digits because the entire Chinese semi industry is required by policy to use them. It’s the easiest pair trade I’ve seen in my life.

Last week I published an in-depth report on Eurofins (EPA:ERF) where I explained why I believe the stock is poised to deliver a >15% IRR. Eurofins is somewhat exposed to healthcare (testing CRO), and my "macro" thesis with healthcare (which now makes up around 28% of my portfolio) is straightforward: 1) Multiples are at trough levels on trough earnings (coming out of the post-pandemic cycle) and analysts/investors have not historically needed to face cycles 2) Healthcare is mission critical, highly defensible, and has certain pockets growing at >10% rates (despite being bundled as "defensives") 3) Healthcare has a positive skew to AI in the sense that AI accelerates the top of the funnel immensely, but many healthcare companies are protected from AI thanks to regulation I believe a future wave of healthcare innovation is coming, and many companies positioned along the drug discovery flow are not pricing this in. Probably going to be early here, but I'm fine with that.

Get ready. Listen to me if you want to become a multi-millionaire in the next 5-7 years. Once the AI-compute trade cools off, the NEXT super-cycle will rotate into THESE categories: 1. Layer 1 - uranium miners • $CCJ - Cameco (blue chip urnamium provider) • $UEC - Uranium Energy Corp. (aggressive U.S. developer) 2. Layer 2 - fuel cycle / enrichment (the real bottleneck - especially HALEU and SMRs) • $LEU - Centrus Energy Corp. (only US company producing HALEU, big Department of Energy money) 3. Layer 3 - SMR & advanced reactors (highest risk-to-reward; the picks & shovels of the future) • $OKLO - Oklo (Sam Altman-backed, already signed $META deal) • $SMR - NuScale Power (first US - approved SMR design) • $NNE - Nano Nuclear (microreactors - portable power) 4. Layer 4 - nuclear operators / utilities (real cash-flow and massive data center contracts) • $CEG - Constellation Energy (largest US nuclear fleet) • $VST - Vistra (insane $META 20-year PPA and nuclear restarts) 5. Layer 5 - components & services (more defensive plays) • $BWXT - BWX Technologies (reactor components + services + defensive overlap) • $GEV - GE Vernova (BWRX-300 SMR tech + nuclear services Safer ETF's include: $URA, $URNM, and $NUKZ Once you make $4M, please thank me by buying me a Porsche.

@zephyr_z9 No different than TSM creating AAPL custom silicone for their hardware

🦔Microsoft canceled its internal Claude Code licenses this week after token-based billing made the cost untenable, even for a company with effectively infinite cloud resources. Uber's CTO sent an internal memo warning the company burned through its entire 2026 AI budget in just four months. American AI software prices have jumped 20% to 37%, and GitHub (owned by Microsoft) is dropping flat-rate plans for usage-based billing across its products. My Take The AI subsidy era is ending in real time. The same company that put $13 billion into OpenAI and built the Azure infrastructure powering most of Anthropic's compute just looked at the bill from a competitor's coding tool and decided it was not worth paying. That is not a productivity failure on Anthropic's end. Token-based pricing is forcing every enterprise customer to confront the actual cost of running these models at scale, and the number turns out to be far higher than the flat-rate experiments suggested. This ties directly to my Gemini Flash post yesterday. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google all raised effective prices in the last six months. Enterprises that built workflows assuming AI costs would keep falling are now watching annual budgets evaporate in months. Two outcomes look likely from here. Either enterprises scale back AI usage to fit budgets, which slows the revenue ramp the labs need to justify their valuations ahead of IPOs, or the labs cut prices and absorb the losses, which makes the unit economics worse at exactly the wrong moment. Both paths land in the same place, the numbers stop working, and somebody has to take the writedown. Hedgie🤗

@KyleAsay_ 100% I’ve had to fire a high activity rep, the problem is that they don’t dig into the problems and understand the business enough. They tend to move on to the next activity instead of digging in.

If my whole family ate sandwiches for every meal 3 times a day only our grocery bill would still be 800 dollars a month. To follow budgeting guidelines, I would need to make 64,000 dollars a year…to afford to only eat sandwiches. You can’t budget your way out of poverty.

Joel Berry @JoelWBerry

a month ago

A little-known hack: 2 slices of Aldi wheat bread: $0.17 3 oz of Aldi deli turkey: $0.86 1 slices Aldi cheddar: $0.15 1 condiment of your choice: $0.02 1 apple: $0.53 1 hard boiled egg: $0.14 5 carrot sticks: $0.17 Cold water from the tap: $0.01 Total: $2.05 You can do this.

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I am proud and thankful to have served in the U.S. House of Representatives with my friend Thomas Massie, a giant among weak pathetic men. Releasing the Epstein files was our demise. But it was worth every single bit because now everyone knows the truth. You are ruled by the Epstein class that cares nothing about you and your elected leaders are bought and controlled by a foreign lobby. Tonight the future of the Republican Party was destroyed. The Real America First Movement will rise led by the younger generations, who hate the old guard with an unquenchable passion. Let us pray that we have a country left by the time these creatures are gone.