Tim Duy @TimDuy
Father, Chief U.S. Economist, @sghmacro, former @uoregon economist, Tim Duy's Fed Watch, former columnist for @bopinion sghmacro.com Eugene, OR Joined September 2011-
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Through the last 8 months, Core PCE will have annualized 3.8%. So long as growth and the labor market remain on at least decent footing, more Fed officials are going to be considering hikes soon
Brutal PPI release. The Fed's inflation gauges keep trending in the wrong direction 3.5% Core PCE. Even worse on headline inflation
we live in age of great moral panics about things that don’t matter and zero moral outrage over some of the most egregious societal sins we’ve ever seen
@Fullcarry I don't think he gives up the pressers. That's something you say from the outside, not from the inside when you realize it gives you the power to shape the narrative.
In his hearing, Warsh said there is no reason to talk if the Fed doesn’t do anything new.
The Fed chairman will have the 2:30 pm press conference after next week's FOMC meeting.
Maybe no more of a coincidence than gold going vertical after Jackson Hole.
Perhaps its a coincidence but precious metals peaked coincident to the Warsh nomination and subsequently gold is -27% and silver -46%...
They die and pass on assets to heirs who buy houses, stocks , cars, and travel. And the demand for health care and leisure is basically infinite.
What happens when the baby boomers stop buying houses, stocks, cars and stop travelling and spending on health and leisure?
The fact that this says the probability of finding a job is less than the first year of the pandemic should tell you the survey is garbage.
Per the NY Fed's survey of consumers, the probability of finding a job in the next 3 months rolled over sharply in May and is back near the lows
I'm finally reading Dune. This quote, which is in the first few pages, hits hard: "Once men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them."
"No!! You can't hike because of oil going higher!" they all said as they got shredded on their SOFR positions.
A collapse in the global population looks increasingly inevitable. Fertility rates have fallen below replacement in more than 66% of nations. No policy intervention has substantially reversed this trend. And technological progress seems to be accelerating it. A smaller, weirder world is on its way vox.com/politics/49116…
I am beginning to think that the Fed literally has a rolodex of only firms that claim they can't raise prices. Some sample selection bias in its anecdotal evidence collection.
United’s Scott Kirby wasn’t surprised by the strong jobs report on Friday, based on what he’s seeing for summer travel plans (and World Cup travel is just a tiny part of it.) He has been surprised by the lack of consumer pushback to higher prices. youtu.be/NOMRMYEvNn4?si…
We will all become coders of apps no one wants.
This is the tough lesson that a lot of people are learning the hard way AI might have made building apps a lot easier, but it also set the barrier to entry at zero Because anyone can do it, there is no moat left The only edge left in the future will be sales and marketing
It would actually be quite funny if markets crash because they were facilitating what it was created for...raising capital for speculative investments...as opposed to continually going up on pure speculation
lol
HASSETT: FED HAS BEEN BEHIND THE CURVE, PLENTY OF ROOM FOR CUT
“The price spiral in assets nurtured a shift in personal values as embodied in an increasingly commonplace tendency among individuals and companies alike to worship money above all else“
@darioperkins Signaling effect, and it works best in crisis.
This *2021* Waller speech makes for interesting reading today. At the time, Fed doves had been pointing to trimmed mean measures of inflation to argue against overreacting to spot inflation. Waller's point was that serially excluding 'one-off' outliers assumes no new one-offs take their place—a fallacy that, in hindsight, anticipated how the transitory framing failed. "The moral of this little example is that one needs to be careful when selectively ignoring data series—be it used car prices, food and energy prices, or household surveys of inflation expectations. All of these series convey important information about the evolution of inflation, and one should exhibit caution in dismissing data as outliers. We must keep our eyes open to inflationary pressures, wherever they come from, with consistency and rigor and stand ready to adjust policy if we conclude that such a change is warranted." federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…
It’s really incredible the absolute AI GARBAGE that people are comfortable sending to their coworkers and bosses There’s a good chance productivity will actually *decrease* as AI adoption increases because everyone is busy wading through AI slop
🤡
KUDLOW: How bad is the inflation right? HASSETT: Right now it's on a deep, downward dive. And the inflation is really out of control in the blue states. So if you take out New York and California, then the story is radically different. And so there's really good news even on
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