FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

Fact checking stuff, maybe Joined November 2019

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

5 years ago

@RicHolden @ClaudiaWebbe

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Jay.w @JakeAndDoge

5 years ago

Just when you thought the #ConservativeParty and our government couldn’t go any lower, @BorisJohnson does this... @UkFactcheck

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

5 years ago

@RicHolden @Nissan Thought you liked fake fact checkers? google.com/amp/s/amp.theg…

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

5 years ago

@IanHirst4 @RicHolden If you want to celebrate preserving a status quo then feel free to. Other industries haven't been so lucky.

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@knuckey1970 @attickewpies @LutherB99406283 @SkyNews Most only have 1, but lots have 2. If everyone had 2 tests, all administered by someone trained there wouldn't be a need to discuss false positives or false negatives (which is thought to be a much bigger problem than false positives by everyone except conspiracy theorists)

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

6 years ago

@LutherB99406283 @HegelianThe @attickewpies @SkyNews 99.99% is using the 0.8% figure you keep throwing around.

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

6 years ago

@LutherB99406283 @HegelianThe @attickewpies @SkyNews Equally likely. But before you throw the first time what is the probability that you throw 2 sixes.

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

6 years ago

@LutherB99406283 @HegelianThe @attickewpies @SkyNews As I said. 2 positive results at the same time is 99.99% certain to be a true positive. Not a guarantee but near as damn it.

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

6 years ago

@HegelianThe @LutherB99406283 @attickewpies @SkyNews When testing people twice to account for the potential for false positives to get higher certainty there are no other combinations where there are 2 positives. If you test days apart then there are other combinations all of which mean a true positive at some point.

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

6 years ago

@HegelianThe @LutherB99406283 @attickewpies @SkyNews With respect. If you think I'm wrong show how I am wrong. Don't just say I'm wrong.

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

6 years ago

@LonsdaleKeith @attickewpies @LutherB99406283 @SkyNews Should also explain that the whole population isn't tested. If of a population of 100k there are only 1,000 tests, with a false positive of 1% then the rate is 10 per 100k. Would require 90 genuine positives before reaching the 100 mark.

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

6 years ago

@LonsdaleKeith @attickewpies @LutherB99406283 @SkyNews 1% of 100k is 1,000. If false positives are at that level and 100 cases per 100k means lockdown then the whole country should have always been on lockdown.

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

6 years ago

@LutherB99406283 @HegelianThe @attickewpies @SkyNews If you have 2 positive tests then you have either had 2 true positives or 2 false positives. If as you say FPR is 0.8% then probability of 2 false positives is 0.0064%. Therefore if you've had 2 positive tests then you can be 99.99% certain that you are positive.

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

6 years ago

@HegelianThe @LutherB99406283 @attickewpies @SkyNews You can never be 100%. But testing twice and both being positive is almost certain.

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

6 years ago

@HegelianThe @LutherB99406283 @attickewpies @SkyNews Exactly

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

6 years ago

@HegelianThe @LutherB99406283 @SkyNews In every country?

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

6 years ago

@HegelianThe @LutherB99406283 @SkyNews You can choose to believe crazy conspiracy theorists and idiot right wing commentators if that's your thing, but they are massively wrong

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

6 years ago

@LutherB99406283 @attickewpies @SkyNews By definition someone who is positive cannot have a false positive result, hence genuine positives are not included.

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FactcheckUK @UkFactcheck

6 years ago

@LutherB99406283 @dj85ftm @SkyNews He's got that massively wrong. The ONS did 112,000 random tests as research and only got 50 positive results back, even if all were false positives the FPR would only be 0.05%. Suspect Hancock meant 0.08%.