Crypto₿ @_InvResearch
链上分析 | 价格行为+SMC | 订单流 | 实盘复盘笔记 日内/短线(日内为主)+长线趋势 每个人都应为自己的仓位独立思辨，本人所有观点均不构成任何投资建议，仅供参考。 Earth Joined April 2018-
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$BTC 反弹太弱了，15m 趋势转空
【 $BTC探底(底部是一个过程，不是一个瞬间)，持续更新】 PS： 链上分析不宜指导短线行情，更不宜指导日内行情。 积极维度： 图1，积累趋势评分在反弹中继续维持深色系高分，但随着昨日价格下行，积累趋势评分有所降低； 图2，已实现盈利在反弹继续处于本周期低位； 图3，RUP处于低位，从结构角度，抛压轻。 消极维度： ETF净流入依然为超越历史的负。从HTF来看，多头趋势仍未恢复，观察ETF净流入的持续转正尤为重要。
【 $BTC探底(底部是一个过程，不是一个瞬间)，持续更新】 PS： 链上分析不宜指导短线行情，更不宜指导日内行情。 积极维度： 图1/2, Realized Price七日变化率以及STH-RP七日变化率，均随着价格创下新低，已实现价格的变化率缩小，表征随着价格创下低，抛压更低；
【 $BTC 警惕信号】15m趋势，上涨动能在冲击64548时呈现力竭趋势。
@w0rdWorld @bc1tiger coinank也是订单流软件，这些信息也都可以看到。 只不过我更习惯TRDR + Exocharts
看起来不错，真实成交中，有支撑效果。
$BTC 642的合约挂单 1 若撤销，则短线看跌概率大，诱多 2 若不撤销或真实成交，表征真实合约需求，则短线看涨概率大
通过@ForeDex_Global平台高级数据分析 $BTC机构ETF需求。 1 图1，25年Q3， 持股超过500万股机构为30家，持股总量为411,377,296 2 图2，25年Q4， 持股超过500万股机构为26家，持股总量为338,096,263 3 图3，26年Q1， 持股超过500万股机构为25家，持股总量为308,259,699 综上：大型机构的BTC ETF需求呈递减趋势，机构需求尚未恢复。 4 图,4，自25年10月起，机构CALL逐步下降，而PUT保护逐步增强，显示机构谨慎的态度。 期待26年Q2的数据
通过@ForeDex_Global平台高级数据分析 $BTC future take的表现。 见图1、图2，在2022年底部（数字1阶段），价格越低，futures take buy与futures take
@bc1tiger 图1 是 Kiyotaka 图2 是Exocharts 图3 是TRDR
$BTC 两个多小时价格就在这100点空间运动，大量的卖压被吸收。
看起来不错，真实成交中，有支撑效果。
$BTC 642的合约挂单 1 若撤销，则短线看跌概率大，诱多 2 若不撤销或真实成交，表征真实合约需求，则短线看涨概率大
【 $BTC探底(底部是一个过程，不是一个瞬间)，持续更新】 PS： 链上分析不宜指导短线行情，更不宜指导日内行情。 积极维度： 图1/2, Realized Price七日变化率以及STH-RP七日变化率，均随着价格创下新低，已实现价格的变化率缩小，表征随着价格创下低，抛压更低； 图3，随着价格创下新低，US资金流出降低，亦说明抛压降低。 消极维度： 图4，ETF净流入依然为超越历史的负。从HTF来看，多头趋势仍未恢复，观察ETF净流入的持续转正尤为重要。 但是目前有向零轴靠拢的迹象。 PS：从技术分析角度，短期趋势个人认为偏多。
【 $BTC探底(底部是一个过程，不是一个瞬间)，持续更新】 PS： 链上分析不宜指导短线行情，更不宜指导日内行情。 积极维度： 图1，积累趋势评分在反弹中继续维持深色系高分； 图2，已实现盈利在反弹继续处于本周期低位，相对前一天降低，表征抛压不高；
【 $BTC探底(底部是一个过程，不是一个瞬间)，持续更新】 PS： 链上分析不宜指导短线行情，更不宜指导日内行情。 积极维度： 图1，积累趋势评分在反弹中继续维持深色系高分； 图2，已实现盈利在反弹继续处于本周期低位，相对前一天降低，表征抛压不高； 图3，RUP处于低位，从结构角度，抛压轻。 图4，USA资金在向零轴靠拢，负的程度在降低。 消极维度： ETF净流入依然为超越历史的负。从HTF来看，多头趋势仍未恢复，观察ETF净流入的持续转正尤为重要。
【 $BTC探底(底部是一个过程，不是一个瞬间)，持续更新】 PS： 链上分析不宜指导短线行情，更不宜指导日内行情。 积极维度： 如图，历史上相对低点（下跌后产生的深色系积累评分），共计9个，只有2个直接跌穿，其余要么反转，要么强势反弹。 消极维度： 代表机构需求的ETF净流入再次转负。
趋势延续
15m 趋势转多。
从订单流的角度来看，这段下跌趋势接近尾声。 这个时候做多、做空都得谨慎。 做空：顺势交易的后期，注意止损设置； 做多：逆势交易的开始，注意仓位管理。
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