Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_

A deal remains imminently imminent 👀 🤥 Trump says he has cancelled planned U.S. strikes against Iran tonight, saying talks with Tehran were approved at the highest level and agreed in detail by all parties involved (heard this before). Trump said the naval blockade will remain in force until the agreement is finalized, with the time and place of signing to be announced. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) said that, in light of tensions caused by US forces in the region and following a statement issued by the Iranian Armed Forces last night, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until further notice. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open despite Iranian claims to the contrary, stating that "hundreds of ships" have transited over the last two months. As @TheIntelFrog noted: At least 6,800 ships should have passed in that same time frame. The only ships that have passed are either under direct cover of US forces, have made an agreement/payment to Iran. (I added - plus those that are just running the gauntlet without discussion). Reducing transits by 90%+ is defacto closure.

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Trump: "At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets" In a logical world, oil price should go up, no? #oott

When I was in the Navy, I was not allowed to use my phone, Paradigm was turned off, emails restricted, not allowed a LinkedIn account, told how to manage Facebook permissions, all in the name of OPSEC. DT on the other hand: "The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT. At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

@Samra_D Not my home.

Trump said the US will hit Iran hard again tonight. There's some talk of Iranian energy/transport infrastructure. Any US attack will certainly see an Iranian response. However, the scope of the response depends upon the target deck of the US (Iran energy=Gulf Energy / Iran military = US military in Gulf states). Iran's responses have escalated like this: Kuwait Kuwait, Bahrain Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan Tonight could look like: Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan + KSA/UAE/Qatar.

@calvinfroedge This isn't the Houthis here.

@IsraelWarRoom No!! Houthis don't operate in boats here. This is more likely Somali piracy. There's been several piracy incidents here over the last few weeks.

There's a few moving parts here. Hezbollah just launched at Israel. Standby Israeli response, then Iran/Houthis' response - especially if Beirut is hit. Houthis launched a few drones/missiles v Israel. Houthis reiterated ban on Red Sea transits for Israeli shipping and threatened to escalate in the face of escalation. Israel will probably respond against Houthis after this or subsequent Houthi attacks. Houthis then may escalate Red Sea targeting profile. Explosions heard in Sirik area, Hormozgan Province. Local residents report multiple blasts. CENTCOM says the strikes are a proportional response to yesterday’s downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter. Iran has escalated retaliation to US strikes against IRGC targets to Kuwait, then Kuwait & Bahrain, and further broadening of Iranian escalation remains possible.

Multiple Houthi drones intercepted at Eilat without sirens. This, coupled with last night's Houthi ballistic missile attacks against Israel, will probably see an Israeli response against Houthi targets at Sana'a, Hodeidah, Ras Isa &/or Saleef. The Houthis likely anticipated an Israeli response, which explains why the Houthis reiterated their ban on Israeli linked shipping transiting the Bab al Mandeb, thus reestablishing the narrative for renewed escalation against vessels/companies calling at Israeli ports.

Israel-Iran-Houthi developments <24hrs 🚨 Israel attacked Hezbollah in Beirut following Iranian warnings that Iran would respond. Iran launched ~10 ballistic missiles towards Israel. Trump said he told Bibi to not respond - allows the US to be seen as non-escalatory and keeps Gulf states on side. Israel disregarded, and launched retaliatory airstrikes against petrochemical plants (used for BM fuel) and air defences in Tehran & Isfahan (probably SEAD for future strikes). Iran has launched 3 waves of attacks against Israel. The Houthis launched at least one ballistic missile from Yemen towards Israel. Houthis also announced closure of BaM to Israeli shipping. - this is no change from the previous status quo in the Red Sea. However, the reiteration affords the Houthis an escalation path (possibly through Phases 1-4 as previously observed in the Red Sea crisis). The Houthis say they will meet escalation with escalation, noting that their military operations will escalate "in line with the events, the battle, and the participation with the axis of jihad and resistance." Israel will probably respond by attacking the Houthis in Yemen which will catalyse Houthi escalation.

Will Israeli respond to Iran's latest attack? Few things to consider. DT has to demonstrate to Gulf partners that HE is not escalating so that Iran does not fire on Gulf states. Publicly, he tells Israel not to respond > plausible deniability. Israel has the opportunity to demonstrate independence and separate from perception as DT's puppet. Israel must show deterrence. So for me, the question is about timing of Israel's response rather than probability.

The US has made clear that it does not want a return to conflict. This is dangerous because it is giving #Iran more confidence and more space to exert its influence. Iran sees this as a vulnerability and is escalating within a broadening sub-threshold category of attacks. Below is a list of Iranian attacks and US' responses Since 8 April ceasefire: Iran attacked multiple commercial ships...❌ Iran attacked #Fujairah ❌ Iran (or Iran-backed groups) attacked Al Ruwais nuclear facility...❌ Iran attacked US Warships, US struck IRGC(N) Iran attacked #Kuwait ❌ Iran attacked Kuwait & #Bahrain ❌ Iran attacked #Israel.... ❌ ❓ Iran has demonstrated there is no rush for a deal. Iran has also demonstrated that it controls the Strait of Hormuz and is there is nothing anybody can do about it.

Iran claimed to have attacked another MSC vessel as part of the ongoing response to US strikes at Qeshm and US Hellfire strike to disable a tanker heading to Kharg. Iran's response has so far included drone and missile attacks against Kuwait and Bahrain, with unconfirmed reports of attacks in the UAE (although no sirens). MSC PANAYA is at port Khalifa Bin Salman, Bahrain.

Trump and Iran trying to reach a deal

CENTCOM says U.S. forces disabled the Botswana flagged tanker M/T Lexie after it ignored repeated warnings while heading toward Iran’s Kharg Island. A Hellfire missile struck the vessel’s engine room, preventing it from reaching port. Since the blockade began on April 13, the U.S. says it has disabled 6 vessels and redirected 122 others. The last time the US disabled a vessel with Hellfire, Iran struck an MSC off Iraq. Simultaneously, explosions reported at Qeshm and sirens ringing across Kuwait following Iranian missile and drone attack. This pattern is becoming common. The US is offering 'Assistance' to ships transiting the SoH via persistent air cover using fast jets, A-10 & Apache. The US is pre-emptively striking Iranian launch sites, whilst commercial ships are convoying through SoH at night. In response, Iran has attacked a US airbase in kuwait at least 3 times.

@MenchOsint This location is 6 days old. I think it was inside the Gulf.

@anmut @lookner No. It's double hull. Vessel breaches the hull then explodes

@mhmiranusa Unclear? MSC has huge Israel affiliation - hence the number of MSC ships hit by Iran and the Houthis.