Bulls bet on a weak USD fueling the crypto rally. But beware: the DXY's looming death cross has historically been a bear trap, often marking bottoms, not breakdowns.
$DXY down 10.78% during the first half of 2025 (12.5% from the recent top), worst since 1991.
Could history repeat?
Bitcoin’s rally has paused after long-term holders cashed in over $650 billion in profits this cycle.
With fewer new buyers stepping in, on‑chain activity and futures volume are cooling off, suggesting that profit-taking, not just macro factors, is capping BTC just above $100K.
Why it’s happening:
1. Mass profit-taking: LTHs (wallets holding ≥3 years) have pocketed a record $650B+ via three major sell-waves — now momentum is cooling.
2. Fading volume: On-chain activity dropped 32%, and spot trading hasn’t surged near the recent highs — indicating weak speculative demand.
3. Lower leverage: Futures metrics (funding rates and rolling basis) are declining — a sign traders are shifting to cautious, defensive positioning.
In short, Bitcoin’s current plateau isn’t due to a lack of interest, but a market cooldown once huge profits were secured — until fresh buyers or catalysts re-enter, price action will likely stay in a tight range.
Trump faces three possible options:
(1) Continue pressuring Iran with threats and hope for compliance
(2) Go to war to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities
(3) Accept that Iran develops nuclear weapons
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