Excess Returns @excessreturnpod

“When you trade at such a high multiple, even if the great news happens, what tends to happen is you hit a ceiling.” When SpaceX begins trading today, it will trade at a price-to-sales multiple higher than any company in the S&P 500. Cameron Dawson explains what Palantir's experience can teach us about stocks with exceptionally high valuations (and why that lesson has not always applied in the Elon Musk universe).

A great primer from Dave on what is coming for SpaceX today and in the coming weeks.

Excess Returns @excessreturnpod

4 days ago

When SpaceX goes public, it won’t just be a story about the company. It will be a story about how the market digests the largest IPO in history. Dave Nadig breaks down the mechanics of what happens when it begins trading.

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“This is recognized as something different, and we’ve dropped any pretense that they are passive indices.” Mike Green returns to Excess Returns to discuss why the SpaceX IPO may mark a turning point in how investors think about passive investing. ✅ Why index funds now act as active forces in the market ✅ How SpaceX exposed the power of index committees ✅ How passive flows mechanically favor the biggest stocks ✅ What happens when years of buybacks meet a flood of new supply ✅ Why AI earnings may be more circular than they look ✅ Why the headline economy may be missing household stress ✅ What AI may change eventually, but not as quickly as markets expect

“Changes in megatrends explain roughly half of the S&P 500’s quarterly movements.” “If growth and earnings are rising because the supply of ideas is increasing, that means inflation ultimately will come down. It means interest rates may not rise with debt levels, and you can support higher valuations.” Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis explains why market moves aren’t always driven by the forces investors think.

For years, big tech's been buying back shares and shrinking supply. But now the biggest names in AI are flooding the market with issuance. @profplum99 is back on @excessreturnpod explaining this fork in the road for passive: youtu.be/mP1SORkNIW4?si…

“At what price would you be a seller?” Cliff Asness was anonymous on the Yahoo message boards during the dot-com bubble. He asked a simple question about Cisco. The answers weren’t what he expected. He explains the bubble lesson inside of it.

"You think this market has broken all the rules? Nah, it's a piker compared to Japan." Many think we are in a bubble today. The dotcom bubble was certainly a big one. Jeremy Grantham reminds us that whenever we think we're seeing the biggest ever — now do Japan.

My latest: I took the ClickBeta 13 @excessreturnpod with @CultishCreative and @CameronDawson and set it all to music. 17 Songs that describe the insanity of the SpaceX IPO. Sort of. nadig.com/p/clickbeta-13…

At this point I watch as much @excessreturnpod content on my living room tv as I do any shows.

Excess Returns @excessreturnpod

3 days ago

"Our projections are AI is going to affect eighty percent of the occupations at twice the rate of the personal computer in four years. The personal computer took fifteen." On our latest Excess Returns, we are joined by Vanguard’s Chief Economist Joe Davis to discuss their

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"Our projections are AI is going to affect eighty percent of the occupations at twice the rate of the personal computer in four years. The personal computer took fifteen." On our latest Excess Returns, we are joined by Vanguard’s Chief Economist Joe Davis to discuss their excellent megatrends research. We discuss: ✅ Why the AI buildout may still be earlier than many investors think. ✅ Why AI could lift growth 50% above consensus ✅ Why every great technology still brings drawdown risk ✅ Why the next AI winners may come from outside Big Tech ✅ What happens if AI only automates instead of augments

What's @Vanguard_Group Chief Economist, Joe Davis, think AI is going to do to markets? This is not your mother's passive investing conversation. Out now on @excessreturnpod: youtu.be/ow021Xftmi0?si…

“You’re going short copper futures. Are you bearish on copper? No, you’re bullish.” Eric Crittenden explains why hedgers aren’t trying to win trades. They’re trying to reduce business risk. And how trend followers get paid taking the other side of the trade.

When SpaceX goes public, it won’t just be a story about the company. It will be a story about how the market digests the largest IPO in history. Dave Nadig breaks down the mechanics of what happens when it begins trading.

People really beat markets, modern portfolio theory confused volatility w. risk, & "we grow up in investing with a certain theory... and you don't even have a chance to ask... was it always there?" @bogumil_nyc @CultishCreative int. @RobertGHagstrom youtube.com/watch?v=h-1wC6…

"We're never happy when a valuation goes up a lot." "When we buy a business, we want our return to come from the growth of the business, not from a revaluation, because when it gets revalued, our margin of safety goes down." Chris Davis on why he focuses not just on return, but where it comes from.

"How many of you either currently own or have owned a business in the past?" "Maybe 15 or 20 people raise their hand." "For everybody else in the room, how many of you own common stocks?" "All the hands in the room go up." "What is it you think you own?" Robert Hagstrom on how investors have lost the connection between stocks and the businesses they represent.

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get, and valuation is the story.” On this week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, @practicalquant and @CultishCreative look at 6 things that surprised us from our episodes last week: ✅ Cameron Dawson on SpaceX’s 100x sales valuation hurdle ✅ Kai Wu on why value still works outside disrupted industries ✅ Jim Paulsen on small cap and unprofitable tech taking leadership ✅ Dave Nadig on SpaceX’s free float and forced index buying problem ✅ Kai Wu on why AI disruption creates huge software dispersion ✅ Jim Paulsen on why oil peaks may matter more than oil spikes

“I can absolutely create a very credible scenario where SpaceX comes out at $1.75 trillion and trades up to $3 trillion over the next 24 months…I can also create a path where we have a 50% sell-off next week.” SpaceX as a company is a very interesting story. But the most interesting part about it's IPO isn't the company. It's the mechanics of how the market will digest the largest IPO in history On the latest Click Beta, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler break it down. They cover: 🚀 Why the SpaceX IPO could create a chaotic first 30 days of trading 📈 What happens when a $1.75 trillion company meets a 4% float 🔁 How forced index buying and passive flows could distort price discovery 📊 Why 100x sales may matter even if the growth story is real 🎯 How advisors can talk to clients who want SpaceX exposure 🏖️ Peak season travel, Ocean City and why some places are worth the crowds 📱 How TikTok and Instagram are making the real world more monocultural 💿 Old CDs, iPods, mixtapes and the lost culture of physical music

"Mag Seven's not only getting beat by small little no-name companies, it's also getting beat by companies without any profits, and that changes the feel of this thing." Jim Paulsen on the shift in leadership beneath the surface from the Mag Seven to unprofitable tech.

This week @kevinmuir welcomes, Matt Zeigler. They discuss portfolio construction, the risk a lot of clients and advisors miss and why the investment business is more fun than rock'n'roll. youtu.be/1gseAVFN400