Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata

@ZAGORec_72 Hope we won't wake up on 20 July and say they've ruined the best thing in football.

Happy 🌎 World Cup Day to everyone, especially to all of you from: 🇺🇸 🇲🇽 🇨🇦 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇫🇷 🇪🇸 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 🇦🇹 🇵🇹 🇭🇷 🇳🇴 🇧🇪 🇨🇭 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 🇸🇪 🇹🇷 🇨🇿 🇧🇦 🇲🇦 🇹🇳 🇪🇬 🇩🇿 🇸🇳 🇿🇦 🇨🇻 🇨🇮 🇬🇭 🇨🇩 🇯🇵 🇮🇷 🇰🇷 🇺🇿 🇦🇺 🇯🇴 🇸🇦 🇶🇦 🇮🇶 🇵🇦 🇭🇹 🇨🇼 🇦🇷 🇪🇨 🇧🇷 🇺🇾 🇨🇴 🇵🇾 🇳🇿 Let's make the most of the next 39 days!

@Gustavvkarlsson It's most likely France. So not much benefit from finishing 3rd.

Group F is one of the trickiest in this 🌎 World Cup. 📈 To reach the KO stage: 87% 🇳🇱 Netherlands 78% 🇯🇵 Japan 71% 🇸🇪 Sweden 36% 🇹🇳 Tunisia 👉 All probabilities and projections available in our 🕹️ Simulator

@bilalnothassani This is not by group, just listed teams around the -2 threshold, sorted by expected goal difference

⚖️ 3 pts and goal difference in low negatives is expected to be the threshold between qualifying to R32 and elimination in group stage for 3rd placed teams. Here are the expected goal differences for teams that hover around that threshold. 👉 Full probability distribution for goals scored, goals conceded and goal difference for ALL 48 TEAMS available in our 🕹️ Simulator

We conclude the pre-WC overview with Group G. 📈 To reach the KO stage: 93% 🇧🇪 Belgium 74% 🇪🇬 Egypt 59% 🇮🇷 Iran 41% 🇳🇿 New Zealand 👉 All probabilities and projections available in our 🕹️ Simulator

🇦🇷 Argentina beat 🇮🇸 Iceland which means they will enter the 🌎 World Cup as world #1! 🏆 FIFA World Ranking (as of 10 June, 14:00 CET): 1️⃣ 🇦🇷 1877 (➕1.2) 2️⃣ 🇪🇸 1875 3️⃣ 🇫🇷 1871 4️⃣ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 1827 5️⃣ 🇵🇹 1766.17 6️⃣ 🇧🇷 1765.86 7️⃣ 🇲🇦 1755 8️⃣ 🇳🇱 1754 9️⃣ 🇧🇪 1742 🔟 🇩🇪 1736

It's possible to finish 3rd in a 🌎 World Cup group with 1⃣, 2⃣, 3⃣, 4⃣, 5⃣ or 6⃣ points. Expected threshold to be among the Top 8 third-placed teams is currently on 3⃣ pts, with goal difference being the key determinant. 🎯 Expected line is currently between -2 GD and -3 GD. 3 pts and 0 GD is the lowest record that offers >90% to make it through as a 3rd-placed team. Probabilities show that a 3rd-placed team with 4⃣ pts would be extremely unlucky not to qualify. However, bear in mind that it's possible to finish 4th with 4 pts, which means elimination. It happened to 🇺🇦 Ukraine at EURO 2024 and to 🇳🇴 Norway at WC 1994, both ended up last in a 4-4-4-4 group. Percentages here relate only to teams that finish 3rd. 👉 Input your own scenarios and see how it impacts 3rd-place and other probabilities in our 🕹️ Simulator 💥 PRE-WORLD CUP promo ends TODAY: 🔒⌛️ Lock-in your All-access for only €5.99/mo or €3.99/mo (billed annually) before the new pricing for new subscribers kicks in once the tournament starts!

The winner of Group K 🇵🇹🇨🇴🇨🇩🇺🇿 has five options to play in R32. It will 100% be L3 🇬🇭🇵🇦🇭🇷🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 ***IF*** L3 qualifies for the KO stage. But if L3 fails to qualify, then other options come in play. Overall: 64% L3 🇬🇭🇵🇦🇭🇷🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 20% I3 🇸🇳🇳🇴🇮🇶🇫🇷 11% E3 🇨🇮🇪🇨🇨🇼🇩🇪 4% D3 🇵🇾🇦🇺🇹🇷🇺🇸 2% J3 🇩🇿🇦🇹🇯🇴🇦🇷 👉 Check out all 3rd-place probabilities and scenarios for ALL 48 TEAMS in our 🕹️ Simulator 💥 PRE-WORLD CUP promo ends TODAY: 🔒⌛️ Lock-in your All-access for only €5.99/mo or €3.99/mo (billed annually) before the new pricing for new subscribers kicks in once the tournament starts!

Are you going to the 🌎 World Cup?

💻 There are 4⃣9⃣5⃣ possible combinations of groups entering their 3rd-placed team into the KO stage! 🎯 Group winners A1, B1, D1, E1, G1, I1, K1, L1 and the eight 3rd-placed teams will learn their R32 opponent depending on which 1 of those 495 combinations "wins". ✅ We got you covered, as our 🕹️ Simulator will update all those options and estimate probabilities for all 495 combinations in real time as the tournament progresses!

🇵🇹 Bruno Fernandes is our biggest favorite to win the Most Assists race at the 🌎 World Cup. Our model gives him 10% to win it. His expected assists are slightly above 2, with 33% chance to get 3 or more. 👉 Probability distributions for expected assists for Top 25 candidates available in our 🕹️ Simulator

🇦🇷 Argentina are one of the biggest favorites to win a WC group (70%; only 🇪🇸 has more). 📈 To reach the KO stage: 98% 🇦🇷 Argentina 81% 🇦🇹 Austria 65% 🇩🇿 Algeria 21% 🇯🇴 Jordan 👉 All probabilities and projections available in our 🕹️ Simulator

@Yamal083 Spain world champions 🙂

Most probable Quarterfinal matchups (as of 9 June): 🇦🇷 Argentina v Portugal 🇵🇹 🇪🇸 Spain v Belgium 🇧🇪 🇧🇷 Brazil v England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇳🇱 Netherlands v France 🇫🇷 👉 Detailed probabilities and scenarios for ALL 48 TEAMS available in our 🕹️ Simulator

The winner of Group E 🇩🇪🇪🇨🇨🇮🇨🇼 has five options to play in R32, but two are standing out in probability: 48% D3 🇵🇾🇦🇺🇹🇷🇺🇸 43% C3 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇦🇭🇹🇧🇷 9% F3, A3, B3 combined 👉 Check out all 3rd-place probabilities and scenarios for ALL 48 TEAMS in our 🕹️ Simulator 💥 PRE-WORLD CUP promo: 🔒⌛️ Lock-in your All-access for only €5.99/mo or €3.99/mo (billed annually) until 10 June, before the new pricing for new subscribers kicks in once the tournament starts!

Group E is another one projected to send three teams to Round of 32. 📈 To reach the KO stage: 95% 🇩🇪 Germany 85% 🇪🇨 Ecuador 69% 🇨🇮 Cote d'Ivoire 20% 🇨🇼 Curaçao 👉 All probabilities and projections available in our 🕹️ Simulator

🇦🇷 Argentina will enter the WC as world #1 if they beat 🇮🇸 Iceland tonight. Otherwise, it will be 🇪🇸 Spain on top! 🏆 FIFA World Ranking (as of 9 June, 8:00 CET): 1️⃣ 🇦🇷 1876 2️⃣ 🇪🇸 1875 (➕1.7) 3️⃣ 🇫🇷 1871 (➕1.3) 4️⃣ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 1827 5️⃣ 🇵🇹 1766.17 6️⃣ 🇧🇷 1765.86 7️⃣ 🇲🇦 1755 8️⃣ 🇳🇱 1754 (➕2.5) 9️⃣ 🇧🇪 1742 🔟 🇩🇪 1736