Group F is one of the trickiest in this ๐ World Cup.
๐ To reach the KO stage:
87% ๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands
78% ๐ฏ๐ต Japan
71% ๐ธ๐ช Sweden
36% ๐น๐ณ Tunisia
๐ All probabilities and projections available in our ๐น๏ธ Simulator
โ๏ธ 3 pts and goal difference in low negatives is expected to be the threshold between qualifying to R32 and elimination in group stage for 3rd placed teams.
Here are the expected goal differences for teams that hover around that threshold.
๐ Full probability distribution for goals scored, goals conceded and goal difference for ALL 48 TEAMS available in our ๐น๏ธ Simulator
We conclude the pre-WC overview with Group G.
๐ To reach the KO stage:
93% ๐ง๐ช Belgium
74% ๐ช๐ฌ Egypt
59% ๐ฎ๐ท Iran
41% ๐ณ๐ฟ New Zealand
๐ All probabilities and projections available in our ๐น๏ธ Simulator
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina beat ๐ฎ๐ธ Iceland which means they will enter the ๐ World Cup as world #1!
๐ FIFA World Ranking (as of 10 June, 14:00 CET):
1๏ธโฃ ๐ฆ๐ท 1877 (โ1.2)
2๏ธโฃ ๐ช๐ธ 1875
3๏ธโฃ ๐ซ๐ท 1871
4๏ธโฃ ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ 1827
5๏ธโฃ ๐ต๐น 1766.17
6๏ธโฃ ๐ง๐ท 1765.86
7๏ธโฃ ๐ฒ๐ฆ 1755
8๏ธโฃ ๐ณ๐ฑ 1754
9๏ธโฃ ๐ง๐ช 1742
๐ ๐ฉ๐ช 1736
It's possible to finish 3rd in a ๐ World Cup group with 1โฃ, 2โฃ, 3โฃ, 4โฃ, 5โฃ or 6โฃ points.
Expected threshold to be among the Top 8 third-placed teams is currently on 3โฃ pts, with goal difference being the key determinant.
๐ฏ Expected line is currently between -2 GD and -3 GD.
3 pts and 0 GD is the lowest record that offers >90% to make it through as a 3rd-placed team.
Probabilities show that a 3rd-placed team with 4โฃ pts would be extremely unlucky not to qualify.
However, bear in mind that it's possible to finish 4th with 4 pts, which means elimination.
It happened to ๐บ๐ฆ Ukraine at EURO 2024 and to ๐ณ๐ด Norway at WC 1994, both ended up last in a 4-4-4-4 group.
Percentages here relate only to teams that finish 3rd.
๐ Input your own scenarios and see how it impacts 3rd-place and other probabilities in our ๐น๏ธ Simulator
๐ฅ PRE-WORLD CUP promo ends TODAY:
๐โ๏ธ Lock-in your All-access for only โฌ5.99/mo or โฌ3.99/mo (billed annually) before the new pricing for new subscribers kicks in once the tournament starts!
The winner of Group K ๐ต๐น๐จ๐ด๐จ๐ฉ๐บ๐ฟ has five options to play in R32.
It will 100% be L3 ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ต๐ฆ๐ญ๐ท๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ ***IF*** L3 qualifies for the KO stage.
But if L3 fails to qualify, then other options come in play.
Overall:
64% L3 ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ต๐ฆ๐ญ๐ท๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
20% I3 ๐ธ๐ณ๐ณ๐ด๐ฎ๐ถ๐ซ๐ท
11% E3 ๐จ๐ฎ๐ช๐จ๐จ๐ผ๐ฉ๐ช
4% D3 ๐ต๐พ๐ฆ๐บ๐น๐ท๐บ๐ธ
2% J3 ๐ฉ๐ฟ๐ฆ๐น๐ฏ๐ด๐ฆ๐ท
๐ Check out all 3rd-place probabilities and scenarios for ALL 48 TEAMS in our ๐น๏ธ Simulator
๐ฅ PRE-WORLD CUP promo ends TODAY:
๐โ๏ธ Lock-in your All-access for only โฌ5.99/mo or โฌ3.99/mo (billed annually) before the new pricing for new subscribers kicks in once the tournament starts!
๐ป There are 4โฃ9โฃ5โฃ possible combinations of groups entering their 3rd-placed team into the KO stage!
๐ฏ Group winners A1, B1, D1, E1, G1, I1, K1, L1 and the eight 3rd-placed teams will learn their R32 opponent depending on which 1 of those 495 combinations "wins".
โ We got you covered, as our ๐น๏ธ Simulator will update all those options and estimate probabilities for all 495 combinations in real time as the tournament progresses!
๐ต๐น Bruno Fernandes is our biggest favorite to win the Most Assists race at the ๐ World Cup.
Our model gives him 10% to win it. His expected assists are slightly above 2, with 33% chance to get 3 or more.
๐ Probability distributions for expected assists for Top 25 candidates available in our ๐น๏ธ Simulator
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina are one of the biggest favorites to win a WC group (70%; only ๐ช๐ธ has more).
๐ To reach the KO stage:
98% ๐ฆ๐ท Argentina
81% ๐ฆ๐น Austria
65% ๐ฉ๐ฟ Algeria
21% ๐ฏ๐ด Jordan
๐ All probabilities and projections available in our ๐น๏ธ Simulator
Most probable Quarterfinal matchups (as of 9 June):
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina v Portugal ๐ต๐น
๐ช๐ธ Spain v Belgium ๐ง๐ช
๐ง๐ท Brazil v England ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands v France ๐ซ๐ท
๐ Detailed probabilities and scenarios for ALL 48 TEAMS available in our ๐น๏ธ Simulator
The winner of Group E ๐ฉ๐ช๐ช๐จ๐จ๐ฎ๐จ๐ผ has five options to play in R32, but two are standing out in probability:
48% D3 ๐ต๐พ๐ฆ๐บ๐น๐ท๐บ๐ธ
43% C3 ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ๐ฒ๐ฆ๐ญ๐น๐ง๐ท
9% F3, A3, B3 combined
๐ Check out all 3rd-place probabilities and scenarios for ALL 48 TEAMS in our ๐น๏ธ Simulator
๐ฅ PRE-WORLD CUP promo:
๐โ๏ธ Lock-in your All-access for only โฌ5.99/mo or โฌ3.99/mo (billed annually) until 10 June, before the new pricing for new subscribers kicks in once the tournament starts!
Group E is another one projected to send three teams to Round of 32.
๐ To reach the KO stage:
95% ๐ฉ๐ช Germany
85% ๐ช๐จ Ecuador
69% ๐จ๐ฎ Cote d'Ivoire
20% ๐จ๐ผ Curaรงao
๐ All probabilities and projections available in our ๐น๏ธ Simulator
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina will enter the WC as world #1 if they beat ๐ฎ๐ธ Iceland tonight.
Otherwise, it will be ๐ช๐ธ Spain on top!
๐ FIFA World Ranking (as of 9 June, 8:00 CET):
1๏ธโฃ ๐ฆ๐ท 1876
2๏ธโฃ ๐ช๐ธ 1875 (โ1.7)
3๏ธโฃ ๐ซ๐ท 1871 (โ1.3)
4๏ธโฃ ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ 1827
5๏ธโฃ ๐ต๐น 1766.17
6๏ธโฃ ๐ง๐ท 1765.86
7๏ธโฃ ๐ฒ๐ฆ 1755
8๏ธโฃ ๐ณ๐ฑ 1754 (โ2.5)
9๏ธโฃ ๐ง๐ช 1742
๐ ๐ฉ๐ช 1736
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