HF Reflections @hfreflection

L/S PM at Fund redacted by Compliance. Ny, ny Joined October 2011

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

a week ago

Thinking about this more recently. Interesting element this time is that a lot of the momo has actually come from historically deep value names, less speculative / new issues. Reminds me a bit of covid in that way, except harder to see end state & when that happens.

HF Reflections @hfreflection

3 years ago

THE POWER OF NARRATIVE IN INVESTING Before I fell in love with investing, I fell in love with stories. I am an avid film buff in college and briefly flirted with a career in it. I think investors - especially value ones - underestimate the power of narrative in stocks. A 🧵

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Wolfpack Research @WolfpackReports

a month ago

We are short $YSS because our research shows the Pentagon is replacing $YSS’s primary customer (96% of 2025 revenue) with a program where SpaceX's Starshield is the currently named—sole-sourced—provider. $YSS was banking on funding from the Tranche 3 Transport Layer for its future growth—and now it appears to be completely gone. We expect $YSS to miss its FY 2026 revenue guide by ~30% and face a dilution spiral in 2027 as its backlog withers. Former employees described a chaotic picture where the company cut corners and delivered “poor quality” satellites that were figuratively held together by “zip ties” and mission software that wasn’t capable of fully operating at launch. We believe $YSS’s systemic problems were partly to blame for the Pentagon’s move to completely scrap the Tranche 3 funding and will also make it extremely difficult for it to win any sizable government or commercial contracts sufficient to replace its lost revenue stream.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

a month ago

@rellahcsedaw @BuffaloBillCo @beachbumcapital Thx. That was my rough understanding as of a couple years ago but I've not seen numbers so was hesitant to stick my neck out.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

a month ago

Pretty amazing what Eminence achieved over 27 years - that kind of longevity, at their scale, for a single manager is impressive. There also are some really talented folks over there who will land just fine when the dust settles. Best of luck to all finding good homes.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

a month ago

I don't know the magnitude of the underperformance and I generally believe that years of no or negative alpha suggests a fund should shut down. But within many large firms there are good firms and good people and I think that's worth remembering as well. I believe that was the case with Eminence.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

a month ago

I think they attracted and retained some very good analysts / PMs who just consistently did good work and had a good process. I think they thought a lot about how they could do better and institute better processes. At my prior firm I learned a lot from them around how they managed a team, paid people, etc. I have no desire to try to build a business of that size and no real idea how to do that (almost every single manager I know of whose hit a few billion eventually breaks), but I think their challenges may tell you more about the difficulties of managing a fund of that size / number of people than it does something specifically about the firm. Kudos to those who continue to generate returns at that scale - I think it's really hard.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

a month ago

Just feel the need to defend the truth here a little. The hedge fund did not shut down (until now) - it is true they started a long only vehicle. My impression is the returns were not good recently but not horrible - there is a big difference between a melvin capital debacle (lose a ton of money, walk away with a ton of fees), and underperforming but not destroying massive amounts of capital before you shut down. I don't think people appreciate the complexity of managing a fund business at that scale and after so long - I think they did better than many just from a qualitative standpoint knowing folks who worked there.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

a month ago

@PPointpass31044 Reasonable people can disagree, but I don't you stay in business 27 years based on luck. At minimum you built a good business that attracted and retained capital. For a single manager, that's probably in the top 1% of longevity.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

a month ago

@BuffaloBillCo @beachbumcapital I don't know / don't have them. Just qualitatively I believe there were some really good folks there who consistently generated alpha, but I don't have hard data.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

a month ago

It’s easy to forget these larger firms are made up of groups of people with varying levels of talent and different personalities. There were / are some amazing folks there who are both good people and good investors - it’s rare these days for a firm of that size to have one let alone several.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

2 months ago

@BayesBull Slowly and carefully.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

2 months ago

Trying to institute some more process around idea gen again as team grows and matures. Resurfacing, will probably update with some new thoughts when I have time. Still agree with most of this.

HF Reflections @hfreflection

4 years ago

PART 7: IDEA GENERATION One of our strengths is generating a high volume of “off the beaten path” ideas resulting in a portfolio that looks unique relative to other funds. This is how we do it. Focus here on longs. A 🧵

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

2 months ago

@bestinvestorevr If it's your team fix it, if it's not better find a new home!

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

2 months ago

More and more I’ve thought of investing as a team sport. When I was younger, even as an analyst, I felt it was all up to me. Having a group of likeminded, passionate people who are aligned in philosophy, process, and incentives is a magical thing.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

2 months ago

@waddledeecap Yes.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

3 months ago

Investing is a job where you can do a lot of busy work, but get little of value done. What are the biggest time wasters you’ve observed ppl do? Curious analyst vs PMs, keeping in mind some things that are wastes of time to some may not be to others. Some thoughts below:

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

2 months ago

Kudos to irenic for trying here. Will be interesting to see what happens given how terrible governance apepars from the surface, but if there is one firm that can do this it's probably Irenic.

Irenic Capital @IrenicCap

2 months ago

Some thoughts on Snap: savesnapnow.com

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

2 months ago

@waddledeecap I've been places that have given one every day and real time. I personally think it's distracting and not a productive use of time. I think once a month is enough to be helpful and inline with how we do it with our LPs. I think it balances transparency with distraction risk.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

3 months ago

@LyinTed1337 Will post more later, still thinking that one through. In general I think I add the most value when I am doing idea gen, helping analysts priotiize projects / giving feedback, and doing my own work, and talking to select group of other funds.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

3 months ago

@LyinTed1337 Doing actual work :). I developed some bad habits early in my career that I’m still working through but you can get better if you try / it’s your firm. I now open OMS 2 times a day, just see positions and position sizes, no p&l references unless I want to see them.

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HF Reflections @hfreflection

3 months ago

@LyinTed1337 I’ve been trying. Some simple ones - don’t yell at analysts when they get a quarter wrong, give them P&l updates once a month, don’t ask them why a stock is up or down on randomness, reward behaviors associated with positive outcomes.