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4月消费崩了
China’s retail sales — a nominal figure — grew just 0.2% in April, marking the weakest reading on record outside the Covid era. Investor pessimism about consumption has become deeply entrenched: the underperformance of consumer-oriented sectors relative to the broader market
非常值得一读的paper：以尼克松对时任美联储主席伯恩斯施加政治压力要求货币宽松为案例，分析发现美国总统对美联储主席的施压只会导致：1）市场通胀预期抬高导致强力且持久的高物价；2）促成之后十余年的多次通胀；3）未能对实体经济活动产生积极影响。restud.com/political-pres…
@JavierR19950216 我昨晚买的bne，唯一优点是流量不过期，esim流量比梯子贵多了，只适合应急用
Goldman tries to quantify the net effect of AI both substituting for and augmenting U.S. employment. Their conclusion: AI substitution in occupations like phone operations and insurance claims administration have reduced monthly payroll gains by around -25K and raised the unemployment rate by 0.16 pp over the past year. AI augmentation in occupations including medicine and education have added +9K to monthly payrolls and lowered the unemployment rate by 0.06 pp. This nets out to a slight -16K drag on payrolls and an increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 pp. Caveat: This exercise doesn't account for the possible benefit from either construction hiring due to data-center buildout or AI-driven productivity/income gains.
非常值得一读的文章，不同于改开年代的单一目标（GDP），当前地方官员面临不可能三角（三个目标）：政治服从、发展科技、金融安全，三者只能取其二。“躺平”因此成了地方官员的最优解。
Sharing a new piece by me and my colleague @shuizaiping2 where we took a deep dive into Xi Jinping’s newly released book on the “correct view of political performance”, a compilation of his speeches spanning more than a decade, many of them previously unpublished! The timing,
"This has bedevilled the launch of a property tax, in part because many corrupt officials own several homes. Forcing political elites to come clean would expose pervasive graft—and trigger a pre-emptive wave of home sales when the property market is weak."
Observers fret that Xi Jinping is returning China to Marxism; few notice that, perhaps unwittingly, he has made it a partial tax haven economist.com/leaders/2026/0…
“China rolls out incentives to boost Spring Festival spending” = 平均每人1块5
Xinhua: "Chinese local authorities have allocated 2.05 billion yuan in funds to directly benefit the public through the distribution of consumption vouchers, subsidies, and cash envelopes during the nine-day Spring Festival holiday." For what its worth, that is well under
This chart from the Financial Times illustrates the significant ongoing volatility in precious metals, as speculators have effectively sidelined institutional investors for the time being. Gold is currently trading down 5%, while silver has slumped 10%. The pressing question is how long this speculative shakeout will last—and just how much damage we should expect. All we know for sure is that the extraordinary rise in the prices of both, while driven by fundamental factors, attracted lots of speculators. Meanwhile, oil prices have also fallen, with Brent down 5%, following a slight cooling in the fundamentally tense relations between Iran and the US. #economy #markets #oil #gold #silver @FT
这两天金银太疯狂了，黄金etf的vix已经干到46了，不知各位大佬都操作了没？我个人看法是现在黄金类似于当年英伟达，杠杆杀完再轻装上阵，驱动黄金价格的底层逻辑没有被颠覆（央行购买、地缘政治、美元降息），新任fed主席Warsh虽有鹰派背景（2006-2011任职理事），但他的思路是fed缩表与降息并行。
Warsh常年反对QE，看起来反而比Powell更鹰，但他似乎不反对降息并支持“降准”（巴塞尔协议III）。反对QE的原因是认为QE加大贫富差距，这也符合Trump的民粹主义路线，更何况其岳父与Trump的关系，“忠诚不绝对就是绝对不忠诚”😂美联储独立性肯定是不保了
TRUMP EYES WARSH FOR FED CHAIR The Trump administration is preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, according to people familiar with the matter. President Trump said he will announce his pick Friday morning, though the decision is not final. The
这篇推文视角比较新颖，简单逻辑就是如果把买房也当成是一种“储蓄”，那么自2021年以来，“储蓄”持续从房产流向金融资产（存款、非银、股票等等），导致储蓄由实物转向金融化，因此造成了供强需弱，如果找不到新的“内需”引擎（实际上也很难找到房地产这么大的内需市场），通缩就将延续。
China’s “consumption problem” is often misunderstood, and the property sector is the missing link. It’s true, in accounting terms, that household consumption is low as a share of China’s GDP. But a common mistake is to equate “high household savings” with idle money sitting in a
挺好的paper，实证数据证明工资增速与生育率正相关，城镇人口弹性更强。不过似乎很难因此建立因果关系，只是这几年这两项数据走势接近。
China’s “consumption problem” is often misunderstood, and the property sector is the missing link. It’s true, in accounting terms, that household consumption is low as a share of China’s GDP. But a common mistake is to equate “high household savings” with idle money sitting in a
很有意思的调研，不过‘Only 39% worried, mostly Republicans’😂
I wrote a book about Chinese influence in the United States, and found that Chinese propaganda in America has two goals: to convince Americans China's rise will be peaceful, and that China's rise is inevitable. Both are misleading at best. Be very careful making these
何副在达沃斯说的刺激内需加强进口，但真正可买的似乎有限：半导体、原油、大豆、铁矿石，没了。产业链太过完备，产能利用率又低，自己的东西都买不完
后续在推上向各位大佬学习、交流
提升服务消费占比得解决有钱、有闲、有地方消费三个问题，目前看来第一点是最难的，光靠居民部门内部的均贫富、再分配肯定不够，需要政府供给侧思维的彻底转变，五年不够，五年能让中央政府转变思路就不错。先关注央国企利润如何分配给居民部门。反观十五五规划建议，反而是在暗示“加税”
China is prioritizing service consumption this year, with a target to raise its share to 50% by 2030—a 5ppt increase. We believe China can achieve this SHARE increase - like Japan in the 90s, a shift from goods to service consumption is inevitable in a maturing and aging economy.
郑小美 @zms2026
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Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA
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