Prometheus Research @prometheusmacro
Research service with the goal of democratizing finance. Making institutional-quality insights and research available to the public. prometheus-macro.com Joined January 2021-
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PODCAST TIME. This one should have been called A MESSAGE TO THE HATERS... because we read out (and respond) to that nice chap's email...
PODCAST: THE COMING FED RATE SHOCK 1) What would make you turn more bullish on AI? 2) Which CB is going to hike the most? 3) Is your US Reacceleration thesis back on track? @darioperkins @freyabeamish Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the… Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/3zdOYW…
Tryna steal your whole flow @prometheusmacro
BEZOS SAYS AI WILL BOOST JOBS, LAUNCHES PROMETHEUS Jeff Bezos said AI will create a labor shortage rather than destroy jobs, arguing it will boost productivity and expand employment opportunities. He is co-leading new AI firm Prometheus, which aims to build an “artificial
OUT NOW - @mattvsmith01 on why oil hasn't gone to $200 yet and why the Hormuz Strait NEEDS to open within one month before the crude/products market ruptures (for real this time!) Apple shorturl.at/VNtR7 Spotify shorturl.at/liJKo
The latest labor market data, in the form of non-farm payrolls, confirmed the tightness of the labor market indicated by initial claims data. Cyclical pressures on employment remain limited. These dynamics keep us on the path to a hiking cycle.
"Our synthesis of these drivers suggests that most of the evidence continues to support equities in the near term. Macro regime probabilities, business cycle conditions, earnings momentum, and short-term regime dynamics all point to support for equities. On the downside, the level of earnings expectations growth is perhaps too stretched. This potentiates a material sell-off if we start to see a reversal of the broad set of supportive conditions. There is a moderately high bar set to achieve this reversal. As such, long equity exposure with tight risk control will likely remain well supported."
A Transition Into Rising Real Growth? We use our Week Ahead notes to surface the parts of our process that are generating the most important signals in the current context. We see signs of a regime shift.
@AahanPrometheus joined @practicalquant for a quick wrap on the current macro backdrop. They discussed: — Nominal GDP — Inflaiton — Macro Regirm Probabilities — Oil Regimes Give it a listen 🎧
The AI trade has carried this market through war, inflation risk, and valuation concerns. But there could be some problems on the horizon for it. On the latest Last Call, @CultishCreative may or may not drink a large glass of vodka while we break it all down.
Motor vehicle spending is directly reflected in GDP through consumer motor vehicle purchases and business investment in motor vehicles. Motor vehicle sales remain soft versus the one-year prior:
Today was a disinflationary day in macro markets. But it does not reset the pressure on the Fed to hike interest rates. Nominal activity is still running too hot for comfort
Federal government spending continues to contribute to nominal GDP consistently. Fiscal spending continues to support the current macro backdrop, but remains far from its primary marginal driver.
Real income breadth has softened materially as the inflation shock has taken hold. Not enough to bring trend rates of growth into contraction, but enough to cause a material dent.
Read it: prometheus-macro.com/p/into-a-hikin…
Month In Macro: Into A Hiking Cycle? The surge in global energy prices, coupled with resilient US nominal activity, is likely to put material pressure on the Fed to begin a monetary policy hiking cycle. 28 pages of granular macro. Free. Link ⬇️
There is a free 7-day non-commitment trial available if you are curious about our world
Friday Thoughts - FX Vol is too low - Current thoughts on yields, Dollar - Macro D FX thoughts open.substack.com/pub/paperalfa/…
Information and intellectual property investment continues to rise dramatically, with no corresponding rise in the associated employment of the sector. This is stimulative to GDP growth AND corporate profits:
Our GDP Nowcast provides economic data across 75 measures of real growth. Currently, 62% of subcomponents are rising, consistent with an expansion.
Systematically verified ✅ — During a business cycle expansion, buy the dip in equities (mean reversion) — During a business cycle contraction, short into weakness (trend) Using our ex-ante business cycle classification.
Like I said to my friend Felix, buy every single dip until the Fed gets serious.
Read it: prometheus-macro.com/p/into-a-hikin…
Month In Macro 🔥🔥🔥 28 pages of comprehensive and rigorous macro research. 100% free. Everything you need to know about the economy and what it means for Treasury markets. Link ⬇️
Get access: prometheus-macro.com/p/into-a-hikin…
Everything you need to know about the US economy as it pertains to Treasury markets. Free.
Into A Hiking Cycle? The surge in global energy prices, coupled with resilient US nominal activity, is likely to put material pressure on the Fed to begin a monetary policy hiking cycle. Our latest Month In Macro, over the course of 28 pages of research, explains why.
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