Brian Rudick @thetinyant
Chief Strategy Officer @UpexiTreasury. Formerly Head of Research @gsr_io, hedge funds @Citadel, Balyasny, Millennium. Opinions are my own & NFA Joined December 2010-
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@renandomole @BlackRock Right, and my sense is the separation tends to widen rather than narrow once it starts.
Fundamentals continue to improve, but given the nascency of the industry, price movement is all about flows. Case in point: The main reason $BTC went from $25k in June 2023 to to ~$70k in mid-2024 was due to @Blackrock 's $IBIT and the tens of billions of inflows it brought. I'm not sure where the next major massive inflow comes from, unless central banks start buying $BTC, in which case the sky is the limit for price. Same thing goes for alts. In 2020 / 2021, so much new money was coming in that it lifted all boats. Now, with no new money, it's being reallocated from most tokens, which are down big, to the few that have a strong traction or at least a lot of attention...
@L0ride @BlackRock My read is the hype-token-to-real-usage rotation is the right way to describe what's happening. The market is demanding evidence that a token represents some economic activity.
@lazyapprovaltx Compounding is usually the right answer when the macro picture gets murky.
Are we in an AI bubble? On one hand we're seeing some bubble signs with performance moving from the majors (egs. $NVDA, $GOOG) to smaller names, mega-IPOs often mark the top of bubbles (eg. $COIN and crypto), and investors may focus more on the returns to AI amidst rising macro/geopolitical risks. But on the other, much of the stock movement is due to accelerating future earnings, and AI has the potential to be the most transformative technology is the history of mankind. 🤔
@renohollis The cyclical noise versus structural shift distinction is the right one to draw.
@EnzoFrom0 The IPO calendar is one of the cleaner late-cycle indicators historically. Mega-deals tend to print at the top of the window because that's when the demand is there to absorb them. Doesn't mean we're at the peak, but it does mean the supply side is acting like it.
Thanks for having me on @Crypto_TownHall 🙏
The trouble with variable rate prefs designed to stay at par is they are wrong way risk for the issuer. Meaning if the issuer's financial condition worsens, the market will demand a higher rate on the prefs, which worsens the issuer's financial condition, and the cycle continues. NFA, but I am not worried about $MSTR's ability to pay $STRC dividends beyond nearly all investors' time horizons. That said, I am worried about their willingness to raise more pref capital at v high effective yields and therefore their ability to continue buying $BTC at year-to-date clips. This to me is the real risk.
Smart contract blockchains like @Solana are a new computing paradigm. We went from mainframe computers to PCs to blockchain-based computers. The TAM is literally global compute. Users need the token to pay for transactions so as usage increases, so does demand. And there are network effects, which will only get stronger once you add in privacy since that reduces interoperability and makes state more valuable
Some of these were right, some were wrong. But pretty good for 2+ years ago! x.com/thetinyant/sta…
Going to drop 33 digital asset-related core beliefs, key learnings, and interesting thoughts over the next 33 days, gathered after three years in the industry full time. Please don’t kick me out of crypto!
Ex macro, IMO the two largest items (by far) that can impact the crypto markets the most over the next month are the CLARITY Act and MicroStrategy...
Very possible HL will increase its lead, but I tend to think the @perps race remains wide open for two reasons: 1. The dominant perps DEX has been a rotating door throughout history, and 2. Perps are a drop in the bucket compared to what it will become
Obv many items go into valuation, but with $ETH market cap 5x that of $SOL, I think the following is severely underapprciated: All else equal, monolithic chains should be more valuable than modular protocols, since they accrue value from all parts of the stack 🤔
@UpexiTreasury 4/4 YIELD GENERATION Focused on increasing treasury yield in a low-risk and recurring manner. If successful, this may be additive to the multiple and help sustain a premium valuation and employment of the capital markets flywheel.
@UpexiTreasury 3/4 EXPENSE REDUCTION @UpexiTreasury reduced employees to 9, exited manufacturing / logistics / warehousing, and is guiding for staking revenue to cover total company cash expenses starting next quarter"
1/4 What is @UpexiTreasury focused on? • CAPITAL MANAGEMENT • EXPENSE REDUCTION • YIELD GENERATION A mini 🧵
Great convo hitting on (IMO) the two biggest items impacting crypto today: • AI sucking the wind out of everything else • Unclear value accrual for many tokens What changes these? Highly recommend today’s @Crypto_TownHall 🙌 x.com/Crypto_TownHal…
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