Mike Shell | Asymmetry® @MikeWShell
Investment manager of ASYMMETRY® | Managed Portfolios for asymmetric risk/reward. Edge, trend, momentum, convexity, optionality, flows, sentiment, volatility. shell-capital.com Tennessee Joined April 2009-
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Today was a rotation day. Investors are pulling money out of the mega-cap tech giants (Apple, Microsoft) and pumping it into the rest of the market (Home Depot, Visa, Mastercard, etc.). A negative day for the index but an encouraging one for the broader stock market.
Systematic CTA managed futures trend following: Still a source of crisis alpha in the next recessionary bear market? Or too crowded after years of inflows?
Understanding macro and how markets interact with each other is fun and interesting— but when absolute returns are the mission— it really is this simple. Price reflects everything. Supply, demand, sentiment — it all shows up in the trend. The price trend itself is the final arbiter.
@RealStockCats @dampedspring Shell Yeah! Long time no see — is that you?
Physicians waste a lot of time researching investments that seem great but, in reality, are high-risk and not worth the effort. Physicians take enough risk in their daily lives, and that risk should not be repeated across their entire financial landscape.
Goldman Sachs has officially taken Fed rate cuts off the table for this year. They see no urgency for the Fed to act, pointing to a stronger-than-expected labor market with an unemployment rate peaking at just 4.4%, and push their forecast for the next rate reductions out to June and December of 2027.
@crossbordercap @gnoble79 @JackFarley96 @fejau_inc Whatever the mechanism, the destination is the same.
@MikeZaccardi It matters most where it converts into earnings convexity faster than valuation, rates, and execution risk absorb the asymmetry.
@dvandenbord @DanRusso_CMT @Vladmerzl Furries?
@isawarenshi @bavedikian @ResiVeteran @BestBuy @FedEx Mine was a no-brainer and clearly eBay’s fault. I have below zero tolerance for fraud and ripoffs.
@isawarenshi @bavedikian @ResiVeteran @BestBuy @FedEx I didn’t mean to C-suite necessarily — I mean managers with decision making authority. It worked.
This is portfolio management: define downside before it matters, size exposure before ego gets involved, and keep the operating system intact when the market is trying to break it.
A quiet index doesn’t always mean a quiet market. Sometimes it means the violence underneath is cancelling itself out. shell-capital.com/asymmetry-obse…
Risk appetite is still alive, but it’s becoming more concentrated, more macro-sensitive, and more dependent on liquidity staying loose while inflation refuses to fully cooperate.
This market isn't only an AI story. It's an earnings-dependency story. Prices can keep rising if forward earnings keep confirming the move, but if that confirmation fades, portfolio risk can show up fast. shell-capital.com/asymmetry-obse…
Situational Awareness: Record high margin debt (up 53.3% YoY) could contribute to or amplify a waterfall decline—a sharp, accelerating, self-reinforcing drop in prices driven by forced selling. shell-capital.com/asymmetry-obse…
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