Shell | Asymmetry® @ShellCapital
We engineer ASYMMETRY®— defined downside risk and adaptive upside— for business owners, physicians, and families with meaningful capital at stake. @MikeWShell shell-capital.com United States Joined October 2017-
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Systematic CTA managed futures trend following: Still a source of crisis alpha in the next recessionary bear market? Or too crowded after years of inflows?
Understanding macro and how markets interact with each other is fun and interesting—but when absolute returns are the mission, it really is this simple. Price reflects everything. Supply, demand, sentiment — it all shows up in the trend. The price trend itself is the final arbiter. - @MikeWShell
Understanding macro and how markets interact with each other is fun and interesting— but when absolute returns are the mission— it really is this simple. Price reflects everything. Supply, demand, sentiment — it all shows up in the trend. The price trend itself is the final arbiter.
The trend's your friend till the end when it bends.
Periods of low vol can breed complacency, overconfidence, and crowded trades—right before the rowdy friends wake up and the $VIX explodes higher.
All my rowdy friends have settled down. $VIX
Stocks and bonds can fall together. Don’t rely blindly on historical correlation rules written for a low-inflation, low-debt era. When inflation risks override growth risks, asset diversification can vanish when you need it most.
The long end of Treasuries is getting bought aggressively. That means real money is paying up for duration — probably not because yields are attractive, but because something else is less attractive. You don’t chase the 10-year down to compress a spread this fast because you’re bullish on bonds. You do it because you want out of something else, or you need the hedge, or you see what’s coming before it’s visible in the data. Stocks can still be grinding higher while this is happening — and often are. That’s what makes it a leading indicator rather than a coincident one. The curve doesn’t ring a bell. It just quietly starts telling the truth before the headlines catch up.
The S&P 500 number is a weighted average of two completely different markets running in opposite directions at the same time. The top has earnings momentum. The bottom is being repriced by cost of capital. The index doesn’t tell you which market you’re in.
The market isn’t just priced for perfection. It’s priced for acceleration. the entire bull case baked into the denominator.
Analysts are penciling out 20% earnings growth over the course of 9 months for the S&P500 right now. Saying short-term expectations are very high seems like an understatement at this point.
Heading into Friday, hedge fund gross exposure was near historic extremes. CTAs max long. Demand for downside protection: near zero. Then momentum unwinds 10% in a single session. This is what crowded and unhedged looks like when it breaks. Semis +33% YTD. Software -12%. The rotation is already happening. The edge right now is being positioned to gain more than you can lose.
The rally off the lows was historic. So was the positioning. When everyone is long and nobody is protected, a 10% single-day momentum unwind isn’t a surprise. A cheap hedge doesn’t stay cheap. You have to take it when it’s offered.
All my rowdy friends have settled down. $VIX
The Market’s Leverage Trap: When Borrowed Confidence Becomes Forced Selling - @MikeWShell shell-capital.com/asymmetry-obse…
Record margin debt isn’t automatically bearish. The asymmetric risk is when borrowed buying power, a thin cash cushion, and falling collateral values meet at the same time. shell-capital.com/asymmetry-obse…
@SMB_Attorney Everything is relative. At just 2.1% of Berkshire Hathaway's record $397.4 billion cash pile, the $8.5 billion acquisition of Taylor Morrison is a mere rounding error rather than a major strategic shift.
Everyone’s worried the IPO wave will drain the market. Goldman Sachs just opined: $1.3T in buybacks. $900B in cash M&A. Against $675B in new issuance. Corporate demand doesn’t just absorb the supply — it buries it. The asymmetry favors the buyer.
AAA regular gasoline is near $4.43/gal. That’s well above 2023–2025 at this point in the year, and approaching the 2022 stress zone. The issue isn’t just the level. It’s the velocity. Fuel prices have repriced fast enough to hit the consumer before the economic data fully shows it.
The US stock market's 2026 rally has been driven entirely by rising corporate profits rather than increasing equity valuations—and Goldman Sachs Research expects that trend to continue. They expect a 6% gain from current levels. The higher forecast is driven by upgraded earnings estimates; the team projects S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) of $340 in 2026, a 24% increase from the prior year, and $385 in 2027, representing 13% growth.
This market isn't only an AI story. It's an earnings-dependency story. Prices can keep rising if forward earnings keep confirming the move, but if that confirmation fades, portfolio risk can show up fast. shell-capital.com/asymmetry-obse…
The Market Isn't Just Expensive. It's Dependent. shell-capital.com/asymmetry-obse…
Stocks Up + Volatility Up: When the Market Starts Paying for Upside by portfolio manager and chief investment officer @MikeWShell shell-capital.com/asymmetry-obse…
The market is showing rotation rather than broad deterioration. A massive defensive surge into Utilities (94% above the 5-day MA) and sustained runs in Tech/Real Estate are keeping the index afloat, while the primary uptrend in Energy remains intact despite recent short-term profit-taking.
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