Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

Interests: Data. Python. Economics. Social Policy. Politics. Australia. Caveats: Not financial advice. Opinions my own. Likes ≠ endorsement. marktheballot.blogspot.com Australia Joined March 2012

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Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

a day ago

A quick look at the typical age of migrants to Australia over the past 3 years. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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@RizviAbul The ABS is suffering more reputational damage from a figure that is so disconnected from the population stocks and flows. The publication now sustains its own conspiracy theories, and as far as I can tell, provides no utility.

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Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo

19 hours ago

President Donald Trump said the prospect of global economic collapse was a big reason he signed an interim peace deal with Iran. That admission exposes a key US weakness heading into the next round of talks with Tehran. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

7 hours ago

@antiark1 @RizviAbul I can proxy nom more accurately for other ABS sources - such as

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Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

7 hours ago

The last quarterly GDP print was weak across the board: soft headline growth, business investment (data centres) leaking out through imports, weak household spending, no net government contribution, and a near-dead market sector. But the quarterly series is very noisy, and despite the Q2 energy shock I still think a Q2 contraction is unlikely.

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11 hours ago

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. Interesting traffic flow in the Southern lane. No visible movements since IRGC announced closure. It could be dark transits, I will report back tomorrow. Source: @MarineTraffic

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Richard Holden @profholden

8 hours ago

My latest @FinancialReview column. "Getting the economic fundamentals right is the hard work of good government. Team Albanese, by contrast, have tilted well left and focused on slogans and sound bites rather than biomechanics. Rather than find a durable solution to our economic challenges they’ve opted for a short-term fragile patch. It hasn’t worked, and now, just like in the US, UK, France, Italy, and Germany, we’ve got insurgent and dangerous right-wing populism on our hands." afr.com/policy/economy…

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Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

8 hours ago

@AvidCommentator @VandanaHari_SG The easy way to achieve no tolls is no traffic.

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Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

8 hours ago

@antiark1 @RizviAbul Even a 12-month net arrivals proxy gives a better indication at how NOM is travelling in advance of the formal ABS publication.

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Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

9 hours ago

Well that is less than convincing. I can forward proxy NOM more accurately from the monthly labour force survey. My method: takes the year-on-year growth in the monthly LFS civilian population aged 15+ (6202.0), which is the timely signal, running ahead of the official quarterly NOM. It strips out the domestic demographic churn that growth also contains: it subtracts 15-year-olds ageing into the population and adds back 15+ deaths (together these are the roughly flat ~150k "15+ natural increase"), then adds child (0–14) migration estimated from ERP cohort survival. What's left, civ15 growth − 15+ natural increase + child migration, is a migration estimate that tracks official NOM about two quarters early. The deaths add-back is essential because in a raw headcount change a death is indistinguishable from an emigration, so without crediting deaths back they'd be miscounted as people leaving.

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Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

10 hours ago

@antiark1 @RizviAbul I agree that NOM is the superior metric. It is the only one where the population stocks and flows add up over time. My corruption comment was in respect of NPLT. It doesn't align with population stocks and flows over time. My Qs are: What is its utility? Why is it published?

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Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

12 hours ago

Weekly energy update. The big questions: will the oil flow again, and will Iran use Hormuz to make the US restrain Israel from hitting its proxy Hezbollah? markthegraph.blogspot.com/2026/06/weekly… #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

a day ago

@RizviAbul If NPLT migration is a corrupted number why does the ABS post it? What is the utility of the NPLT figures.

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Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

a day ago

@BenPhillips_ANU Ben when I replicate your method using the civilian 15+ population I get a shortfall of ~45k for the last calendar year. Much the same as I get from my algebraically comparable method. Agree, a useful rule of thumb.

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Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

a day ago

@cmkusher @BenPhillips_ANU The Age composition is different because of increased deaths, fewer births, more migration. So the demand for housing (largely adult driven) is higher. We are not exactly back to the old trajectory.

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Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

a day ago

On this metric, number of homes to keep the adult population per dwelling constant, I happen to agree with the 800 dwellings / week short. The nastier thing is that running an internationally high immigration/population growth rate, means that tax incentives are now reducing rental supply while high immigration is sustaining rental demand.

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Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

a day ago

@AvidCommentator It's a policy lucky dip. You never quite know what you are going to pull out of the hat.

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Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph

a day ago

@AvidCommentator Agree this was hamfisted. But not sure the rarity and scale is the compelling argument. Capital gains are largish and lumpy. So you would expect the some skewing with only some capital owners making a gain in any one year.